A couple thoughts on things:
* Oscars tonight, and on looking at my Oscar picks piece from the day the nominations came out, I think my picks are still pretty solid. A couple of additional thoughts, however:
- I’d say for Best Picture, No Country for Old Men looks more like a lock than it did earlier (thanks to its wins at the various run-up awards), but if it doesn’t win, it’s possible that it will be Juno, not There Will Be Blood, that snipes it, since it seems like there’s a groundswell in that direction, while Blood seems to be getting more of a “just too depressing” vibe the longer it’s out there.
- Likewise, I’m less convinced Paul Thomas Anderson is going to walk away with a screenwriting award as consolation — this is another place where the Coens look like they’ve gained ground. What I think would be really interesting is if “Roderick Jaymes,” the Coen’s editor, gets the Best Editing Oscar, since “Roderick” is in actuality the Coens. It’s entirely possible the Coens will walk off with four sets of Oscars (they’re also producers on Old Men).
- I’m still going with Ellen Page for Best Actress, but everyone else seems to think Julie Christie is going to nab it. Well, fine, believe that if you want. Page is still the cheese to my Oscar macaroni. On the Best Actor side, I think everyone in the world will be genuinely shocked if anyone but Daniel Day-Lewis wins.
* Last week I told Holly Black that my expectation for Spiderwick this week is that it would hold over pretty well, because it’s a family film and family films do better week to week than other films often do. And lo: Spiderwick made $12.6 million this weekend, down just a third from its opening weekend, which is a really solid retention rate these days (most films drop by half these days on the second weekend). Jumper is down about half (it’s also at around $12.6 million), which is totally in line for its market demo. Both of these flicks look pretty solid for their theatrical runs; they may finish under their production costs domestically but international will fix that pretty handily and then DVD is all gravy. They’re not blockbusters, but they’re solid hits, and you can’t complain about that.
* Speaking of books, there are less than 24 hours left for you to make a bid on Zoe’s Tale. Go on, you know you want it. And remember, if the bidding gets over $2,500, a hardcover of Agent to the Stars is thrown in as a premium. And then all the money goes to the Disabled American Veterans Charitable Service Trust.
* Also remember that you can still donate to the Dewey Donation System to take part in a drawing for a special edition of my upcoming novella. Cheaper than the Zoe’s Tale auction, but just as much fun, and you’ll be doing good, too, just in a different way.