And as to the long answer: http://www.autumnrain2110.com, for the latest post.

With evolution pushing war toward a fourth generation (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fourth_generation_warfare), why would you bother militarizing space? Honestly, I can’t envision any situation in which a spysat would be useful against small-contingent insurgencies.

Honestly, it seems like the best thing for national militaries to do going forward is to integrate more tightly with their respective national security agencies, trim the size of their conventional forces and strategic nuclear forces, and build the hell out of their special ops groups.

I’d love to hear from the author about how 4th-Gen Warfare played into the writing of the book.

Also… you know.. future history does NOT have to be OUR future history.

The future belongs to the people who show up for it. The Russians aren’t. Any “future history” that has them not just as a “powerful nation” but as a leading world power has got a whole lot of ’splaining to do before I buy it.

And I’m quite interested by the Big Idea presented here; I think I’ll pick up the book.

As to whether or not it’s ‘probable’; I think Putin is doing quite a bit to stop their ‘decline’. That doesn’t mean it’s going to work, but it does mean that they are much stronger than they looked like they were going to be after the collapse of the USSR. In a more sociological sense, the Russian spirit is an indomitable one, and I don’t expect to see a slow, gradual collapse anytime soon. At least, not on the outside.

Perhaps historians will point out all the signs after it happens, but we in the present will most likely be blissfully unaware until the day it happens.

So? Your assertion in post 1 is wrong. Any future history *that purports to be a straightline projection of the present* might have to take Russia’s decline into account. But remember, 150 years ago Russia was a formidable world power, the US was not and, in general, our current world wasn’t the one you would have envisioned.

And, you know… if you’d like to write a future history, go for it.

Follow the demographics. Russia is losing 0.5% of her population every year. Russia is sick. Her health system has collapsed; her land, water,and air is polluted; she is racked by rebellion, and her infrastructure is either crumbling or has disappeared altogether.

And we and the Russians lie about it. We lie because we refuse to face up to the danger Russia’s collapse poses to the world. Russia lies because of pride, and fear of what could happen were people to realize what’s going on.

Williams presents an interesting alternate future history, but it’s not a possible future history for our world.