From my years of experience, I would say that McCain has an even shot at PA.

Pennsylvania was a blowout: 55% to 44%, and called in the first minutes after polls closed.

I also do not believe that Obama will win NC, Virginia, Florida, or Nevada.

Obama won Virginia, Florida, and Nevada. North Carolina is still counting.

I think Indiana, Ohio, and Colorado are unlikely Obama wins but I suppose it could happen.

All three went to Obama.

I know it may be hard to believe, but not every registered Democrat always votes for Democrats.
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[A] poll … in Colorado gives Obama a 4 point lead with a +/- 3 point MOE.
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And it is a [demonstrable] fact that Obama overpolls. In fact, the Obama campaign itself doesn’t feel compfortable with anything under a 6 point lead.

Colorado went to Obama 53% to 46%, and Obama met or exceeded his projections just about everywhere.
In the actual event, Obama underpolled substantially.
Come next election, Frank, you have one helluva deep credibility hole to climb out of before anyone takes your predictions seriously.

Yes, I am optimistic. But I also realize that Obama is likely to be the President-elect come tomorrow morning.
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But that doesn’t mean the situation is hopeless.If Obama does win, the best scenario for me would be that he wins the electoral vote but loses the popular vote. The irony of the situation would just make my heart sing.

And Obama won both electoral and popular votes by decisive margins. Did you see him deliver the best goddamn victory speech in history? Be optimistic. Let your heart sing a little. Barack Obama will be a great president, something even his detractors — those who can just unclench and quit their bellyaching — will see in time.

Too late, I’ve got you down for $100.

Yes, all of the Democrats would enjoy that as well. Someone would have to drive a stake through the zombie of James Baker, though.

Especially if no one complains about it….

Gosh, all those good little Republicans, soldiering on despite how badly they’ve been treated? It brings a tear to the eye.

If Obama does win all of Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida, he’s toast. And we’ll know that soon enough.

Pennsylvania and Ohio will come in early as well. He doesn’t have to win both, but he has to win one (along with the above).

If McCain passes that test, then we’ll know for sure that the pre-election polling will have been worthless.

I don’t make predictions, but this sounds to me like a lot of optimism on your part.

Yes, I am optimistic. But I also realize that Obama is likely to be the President-elect come tomorrow morning.

But that doesn’t mean the situation is hopeless.

If Obama does win, the best scenario for me would be that he wins the electoral vote but loses the popular vote. The irony of the situation would just make my heart sing.

Especially if no one complains about it….

The most recent polls from CO (per fivethirtyeight.com) range from Obama +4 to Obama +10, with an average of Obama +6.6, if you want to discount all the fancy high-falutin’ mathematricial modeling that the baseball geek does. If you want to trust the mathematical model, it has a trend-adjusted snapshot of Obama +6.5 and a projection (based on allocation of undecideds and other factors) of Obama +5.9.

Rasmussen also showed Obama +4 in their 10/26 poll and Obama +5 in their 10/19 poll, so it’s not like they’re showing any appreciable tightening.

Taking your statement that “the Obama campaign itself doesn’t feel compfortable with anything under a 6 point lead” as a given fact, and assuming that every state which the fivethirtyeight.com snapshot shows as less than a 6-point lead for Obama goes to McCain (basically, every single state on the RCP map as of 11/3 that’s considered a toss-up – ten states – plus Nevada), gives Obama 273 electoral votes .

So in other words, if McCain wins ten toss-up states, holds onto three states that are “lean McCain”, plus grabs Nevada away from Obama – he still loses.

I don’t make predictions, but this sounds to me like a lot of optimism on your part.