Be Serious, Now
Posted on March 3, 2008 Posted by John Scalzi 43 Comments
Does anyone really think Hillary Clinton is going to leave the race if she blows it in both Ohio and Texas tomorrow? Really? How can she possibly usurp at the convention if she’s not still in the race? That would be madness!
Heh. Sorry.
My expectation at this point is that Obama wins Texas, Clinton gets Ohio, and in both cases they get delegates out of both states, Obama stays in the lead for the delegate race, and things just keep grinding on. But on the flip side, my mailbox will no longer be full of political flyers and I won’t be receiving any more robocalls for at least a few months. I can live with that.
Dropping out would be the best thing she could do for her chances of eventually becoming president.
I just don’t think she’s got a snowball’s chance this year.
Unfortunately, I don’t expect her or anyone on her campaign to recognize this fact unless Obama positively steamrolls her tomorrow — which, I agree, is a highly unlikely scenario.
I cancelled the newspaper, stopped answering the phone (except if I recognized the number on the caller-ID), and only watch TV via Tivo. As for the physical mail, the recycling bin is on the way to the house from the mailbox.
I was tired of this presidential campaign about three weeks after it started (and that was back in 2006)
I’ll start looking at candidates about 1-November. Not before.
P.S. If I get tricked into answering the phone (my wife says “will you get that?”), and there’s not a real person on the other end, I hang up immediately. [ This is not specific to politicians or during election years – this applies to everyone. ]
Yeah, as soon as I hear the robo-hiss of a recording, I hang up.
I get the impression that Senator Clinton would sooner leave the Democratic Party in smoldering rubble than yield an inch to Obama. I mean, Bill basically spent all of 1998-2000 doing that, and the Clintons shoved Kerry off a cliff in 2004 so Hillary would have a clean shot this year.
So I’ll be quite surprised if she isn’t the nominee; she strikes me as the sort of person who would enjoy presiding over the rubble, so long as she got to preside.
“As for the physical mail, the recycling bin is on the way to the house from the mailbox.”
You too, eh? I like to think my landlord planned it that way.
She won’t, but she should because short of discovering a picture of Obama on a bought with a loose woman on her lap, it’ll be over.
gah. *His* lap. What’s this preview button do?
Whether she drops out or not depends on whether she wants a political careeer after 2008.
While her moment to be president is probably over, I think she stands an excellent chance of eventually being Democratic leader in the Senate; if I had my way Harry Reid would leave sooner rather than later. Not a bad plum and I think she would be really good at that; that is where her “I have been a washington insider forever” would be a real benefit.
If she stays on when it is all but impossible to win, then she won’t have much of a political career afterwards. Remember Obama is at the top of the ticket and that carries with it some pull.
cheers
Andrew
I plugged my phone back in this morning after leaving it unplugged for a week, and have only received one robo-call from the governor. So far. I’m expecting that I’ll just leave the internet hooked up at suppertime. Sometimes, dial-up is a godsend! :)
Dare I say she will do the honorable thing and drop out so the party can rally behind one canidate?
OR drop out so Obama can ask her to be her running mate??
She’s almost certainly not going to “lose” either Ohio or Texas; however, her wins will be minor, and the delegate counts will still leave Obama in the lead.
If she doesn’t get the nomination this time, she never will, and she knows it. So that’s part of the reason she’s fighting so hard. (Don’t get me wrong: while I prefer Obama, one of the reasons I’m okay with Hillary is because I know she’ll fight for the election. Unlike other people.)
Clinton won’t be Obama’s VP candidate. I could see the other way around, but he’s been doing too well to make that likely.
No, she won’t.
I bought my parents a new phone for their wedding anniversary (it’s what they wanted!). It has caller id and a digital answering machine. El cheapo dad dropped voicemail for the free answering machine.
I’ve been cursing my brilliance during every robo-message today.
Why don’t I answer the phone and just hang up you say? There have been four messages, but about twelve phone calls. I’m still not sure which one is worse.
Only one robocall and no mailers today. I suspect the calls will begin in earnest right about dinnertime.
I thought she would drop out until I started to see what they were throwing at Obama the last few days. Nasty things that insinuate disproved facts like she doesn’t think Obama is Muslim as “far as she knows”, etc etc.
She seems to have decided to take the campaign in a pretty ugly “scorched earth” direction. I don’t think she will succeed with this path, but she may end up driving the Dems chances in November down giving the Republicans an equal playing field.
As long as Texas was brought up, what will constitute a win in Texas? With the fakakta system the Dems have set up in Texas, one candidate could get a huge majority of the popular vote, and still end up with fewer delegates. And that doesn’t include the delegates that will be selected at the caucuses, after the voting is done.
I don’t think Clinton is going anywhere. I suspect a major trouncing might cause her to concede but I don’t think that’s going to happen. I think the super delegates are going to have to decide this one.
Marshall, John I am with you but have you been here?
https://www.donotcall.gov/
I know I know, it won’t stop politicians or charities but it will cut down on the number of people you have to hangup on. Plus you can tell the commercial teleharasers that they have to take you off their list and leave you alone.
If she says anything that resembles “I’ll drop out if I lose on Tuesday”, the public perception will be that she knows she’ll lose, and the public reaction will be to make it so. The public is stupid.
We have to wait for the Tuesday results before we can expect Clinton to give us a candid assessment of her chances and her plans.
And no, I don’t see her dropping out unless she’s crushed in Texas, Ohio, AND Vermont and Rhode Island. People keep ignoring the smaller two, but she’ll use them to demonstrate momentum if she needs to.
I agree with Scalzi, Obama will win Texas and lose Ohio. I live in Texas and understand the voting system and my guess is that Obama will net quite a few delegates. Ohio won’t be nearly as bountiful for Hillary as Texas is for Obama.
And no, Hillary won’t drop out of the race until:
1) She runs out of poo to fling (and she has shown just how much poo she has),
2) The major players in the Democratic party force her out (good luck with that, she thinks the nomination is owed to her, if they are going to force her out they will have to use political baseball bats and brass knuckles),
3) The Democratic party has been torn apart (and judging by her actions of late this is her goal. If she can’t have the nomination nobody can.)
You know I always used to defend the Clintons against my wingnut parents attacks. Now I’m starting to wonder if they weren’t right, which is truly scary.
The day before California primary, I got 5 phone messages from Obama campaign and 1 phone message from Clinton campaign.
@nisleib
But you don’t WANT candidates who throw in the towel easily. Both Gore and Kerry didn’t do absolutely everything they could to win and look what happened to them.
There’s been a lot of talk about how a protracted contest could hurt the Dems… but in many ways I think it can help. The candidate who wins the nomination will have had to really fight for it and at this point McCain seems to be getting less attention simply because there’s no real story on the R side… he’s got the nomination, nothing to see until the convention, move along. It also opens the door for McCain to slip up – see his acceptance of Hagee’s endorsement and today’s interesting comment that vaccines likely cause autism (despite science to the contrary). To the degree that McCain keeps saying things that make him sound like Bush he risks alienating people who thought he might be reasonable.
Hillary Let’s see those tax forms!!!
You have my sympathies. My phone got blessedly quiet after the Massachusetts primary…but I only got one call from Clinton and none from Obama.
On the other hand, I got five frickin’ calls from Willard and his wife and his friends, even though I am registered as an “unenrolled” voter. It was almost enough to make me take a Republican ballot, all right…
I’m trying to figure out why the media is so into talking about the people who are endorsing candidates. I’m barely aware of who Louis Farrakhan is, but even if the KKK endorsed Obama, does that mean you shouldn’t vote for him because of that? It’s like Kindergarteners on the playground.
“I’m not your friend anymore because Louis said he’s your friend and Louis doesn’t like Herschel and Herschel is my friend.”
“Well I don’t like Louis. He’s not really my friend.”
“I don’t believe you. Punch Louis in the face or he’s your friend.”
to Rick Gregory
I have no problem with an extended race. But look at the “red phone” ad and what do you see? This ad looks like something McCain would run. He could just edit out the last 10 seconds, put a new voice over in, add a few images of him, and voila, you have a McCain ad.
According to Hillary’s campaign they are now using the “kitchen sink” strategy. In other words they are flinging all the poo they have at Obama. While your argument that this actually makes Obama stronger may be (big may be, it may also raise Obama’s negatives) valid, it also does the GOP’s job for them.
Now let’s look at the worst case (in my opinion) result of this primary season: Hillary wins. Why do I think that is the worst case? Because Obama is drawing in new voters, he is recapturing Reagan Democrats, he is growing the party in a way no Democrat has in a very long time. If Hillary wins those supporters will be pissed. Many of them will turn their backs on politicks. They will feel cheated. And given the way that Hillary has run her campaign they will be right.
The best (= most entertaining (= winger heads spontaneously impode) ) scenario I’ve read about Clinton/Obama goes like this:
1. Obama wins nomination and POTUS.
2. Immediately appoints Clinton to SCOTUS upon first death/retirement among sitting justices. Given her background and Senate seat, not as far-fetched as it sounds at first blush.
3. Right-wing now has something to complain about until the heat-death of the universe.
Everybody wins! :)
rick @21:
“Both Gore and Kerry didn’t do absolutely everything they could to win and look what happened to them. “ Yeah, they got thrown under the bus by the Clintons. Any guesses on whether Obama will make it 3 for 3?
DHS @26:
I imagine the confirmation hearings would be as big a circus as impeachment was. Also, why would Obama do Clinton (either Clinton) that favor? If he wins, it wont be like he owes the Clintons anything. I mean, if he wants to spend his political powder on that one, God Bless, but I think that a less-than-wise decision.
And no, Hillary won’t get out of the race. She’s done if she doesn’t win in 2008. If she can’t beat McCain in ’08, how would she get to run again in ’12? She’ll fight to the end because that’s how they play. I always think I’m being to cynical when I think the Dems will find a way to implode. Then I think, if not for Ross Perot, it’d be 100% in my lifetime.
Clinton just said that she and McCain have more to offer than Obama.
She’s desperate and it’s showing. Not only will she lose, but now she’s just writing the Right’s talking points for them. It’s crap like this (and the “It’s 3 AM” ad) that makes me want to ask for a Dem ballot tomorrow so I can vote for Obama just to spite her.
Jardine-
I’d *LOVE* to see Obama punch Farrakhan in the face! In fact, I’d pay to see that.
“Farrakhaaaaaannnnnn!”
Oh yeah.
I’m pretty sure Obama doesn’t believe in the no-win scenario, either. :)
McCain already ran his version of the 3 AM ad three months ago.
[deleted for general sexism, racism, and stupidity — js]
Thank you for your comedy stylings, Breaking Silence.
DHS,
“1. Obama wins nomination and POTUS.
2. Immediately appoints Clinton to SCOTUS upon first death/retirement among sitting justices. Given her background and Senate seat, not as far-fetched as it sounds at first blush.
3. Right-wing now has something to complain about until the heat-death of the universe.
Everybody wins! :)”
Cute idea, but that’s all you moonbats need: “Sherman Minton with a nicer hair-do.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sherman_Minton
@31: Don’t hold back… tell us how you really feel.
Who cares? They’re commie democraps.
So, John…have you voted? I might have missed it.
*Running for cover………………………………
I will be voting tomorrow, never fear.
I can only repeat (because it seems wise to me) a comment I came across on some other blog a month ago: If Clinton is the nominee, the Republicans will make this election about the Clintons and their potential return to the White House. That is, attention will be (successfully?) diverted from the Republican record. This is something I would want to avoid, no matter how good a candidate Hillary may be or might have been.
Nislein #19- Your parents (and Limbaugh and a whole slew of evil conservative pundits) were right about the Clintons. Doesn’t necessarily make the conservatives rights about policy issues (though I think they generally are, when sticky to the platform-not the backroom deals), but they pretty much hit the nail on the head when it comes to the Clintons’ character.
I doubt she will drop out until Obama has more of a delegate lead than he does now. He only has an 8% lead (109) and there are around 800 superdelegates, of which I believe less than half have committed to a candidate. The race is still too close for her to drop out as long as she sees a slim chance at the nomination.
Obama doesn’t owe the Clintons anything now, but he might in exchange for Hillary dropping out of the race. I think that’s what DHS had in mind. I assume McCain owes Romney something in exchange for his dropout and endorsement.
Clinton will retire gracefully if/when she can’t win. She wants the slot and has done a lot of working for it (not in the Senate, in campaigning). But she will face reality fine.
I say this as a Republican, who would far prefer Obama over Clinton and who thinks there are some funky money things going on with the Clintons (graft really).
About the robocalls, the non-partisan, non-profit National Political “Do Not Contact” Registry has been created to help citizens with the problem of unsolicited, unwanted political phone calls. Citizens can register their phone number by going to http://www.StopPoliticalCalls.org. Erin Nelson