My Guess on Tomorrow Night
At the end of the evening tomorrow, this is what I expect the electoral map will look like:
Note that I think this is a fairly conservative map, which is to say that when in doubt I’ve given McCain swing states. That said, I think it’s entirely possible that Obama will pick up Florida and/or North Carolina. I also think it’s possible that Ohio will go to McCain. I don’t think it’s likely Obama will pick up Indiana and/or Arizona, and I find it equally unlikely McCain will take Pennsylvania. I think the upper range of Obama’s electoral count is 353 (that’s him taking North Carolina and Florida along with everything else here), and the lower range is 291 (if he loses Ohio). Any of these gets him a win.
(Incidentally, I made this map using Real Clear Politics’ electoral map maker.)