Your Oscar Night Open Thread

I’ll be off today with family and friends doing things you do with family and friends that don’t involve computers, but while I’m away I thought I would leave you an open thread to discuss the Oscars, since I know it’s not like there’s anywhere else on the Internet to talk about them today.

As regards my own thoughts on this year’s Oscars, here are my initial thoughts on the likely winners, from when the Oscars were announced, and here are some thoughts specific to the science fiction films on the ballot. By and large my thoughts on what will win are unchanged from my initial guesses with the exception of Best Picture, in which I think it’s a toss-up between Avatar and The Hurt Locker. Put a gun to my head and I’ll pick Avatar, but for a reason which has nothing to do with the quality of either film. Simply put I think it comes down to whether the Academy wants to award its highest accolade to a film that’s made $2.5 billion worldwide in box office, or a film that’s made less than 1% of that. At the end of the day I think the money will talk enough to push Avatar over the top, especially if enough folks in the Academy think a Best Director Oscar for Kathryn Bigelow will be sufficient compensation.

But I could be very wrong about this, and the preferential ballot aspect of the Best Picture category this year could spin that Oscar into some place really weird. In which case Inglourious Basterds, my original guess, will sneak in and nab it. Honestly, the uncertainty around Best Picture is really the only reason to tune in at all tonight.

Please feel free to put in your final guesses into the comment thread, and, once the show starts, to post your thoughts on the winners and the show itself. As noted I’ll be offline for a lot of the day, but will try to check in from time to time.

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