49 Comments on “Early Oscar Predictions, 2016”

1. I am inclined to disagree on the cinematography choice – Mad Max was so visually overwhelming that I think it is apt to take that, as well as the VFX, editing, and sound design statuettes for which it was nominated, especially if Miller & Co. don’t get one of the biggies.

2. I’d love to hear which movies/actors/etc you think SHOULD have been nominated since it’s clear that persons of color weren’t even considered (again) this year.

3. Ex Machina was my favorite movie of the year and I and would like to see its brilliant original screenplay honored. (And speaking of Alicia Vikander, I adored The Man From U.N.C.L.E.)

4. With regard to UNCLE, the issue is not whether it was a good film (or if she was good in it) but that it was a big ol’ flop which did no one in it any good, career-wise.

5. This seems entirely reasonable to me as a first pass based on the ones that I’ve seen already and the academy’s history. Out of curiosity, John, how many of these have you seen yourself already? Do you make a point of watching the Best Picture nominees that you missed before the awards like a lot of people do?

6. OK, that’s a fair point about UNCLE being a flop (which I caught up with recently and is delightful).

7. I hadn’t even realized that was Vikander in both Ex Machina and The Man from U.N.C.L.E. She did a fantastic job in both roles (I haven’t seen The Danish Girl yet,but I imagine she excelled there as well). I think they’ll split the Picture/Director wins this year and Romero gets the Director and maybe Spotlight for the Picture. I’d say I think your other analysis is pretty spot on too.

8. Romero?

9. You are dead on with Stallone. I haven’t even seen the film, and I’d give it to him!

10. How is Mad Max not up for Best Original Score? The movie wouldn’t have been what it was without that score.

11. Witness the Oscars! So Shiny, So Chrome.

    Loved the Mad Max nominations, really hoping it pulls off best picture this year, but I have my doubts, people who hate that movie, really really hate it and find it grating.

    My bet is it sweeps the technical categories, maybe a best director win for Miller and then it loses in best picture to something more traditional, probably the Revenant. But I hope I’m wrong.

12. “in a year where there are very few people of color in major award categories (and none in the acting categories) — and should, because damn, Oscar, you really kind of showed your cranky whiteness this year.”

    How much of this do you think is because of the Academy, and how much do you think it’s Hollywood’s fault for not making more movies with non-white actors and actresses?

13. While we’re talking about the lack of any people of color in the acting categories, can we also talk about Charlize Theron getting snubbed? She should have gotten nominated for Best Actress (not Best Supporting, as she was the real protagonist of the film). Genre films often have a hard time getting Oscar attention. Even the LoTR trilogy, which won eleven Oscars for its third film, got only one nomination for acting, and that was for the first film. How Sean Astin and Andy Serkis didn’t get nominated for the next two films, I will never understand.

14. I’m pleased to see Saoirse Ronan getting some coverage. She’s been really good for a long time. Watching Americans fumble around her name is pretty amusing as well. :)

15. Quick note: typo in the “Thoughts in other categories” paragraph, “Don’t feel TOO bad for him…”

    Otherwise looks like a decent list. I actually haven’t really been going to the movies a lot this year and I haven’t seen most of these films. It would be great to see The Martian (and by extension Ridley Scott) take home something, but I’m not holding my breath. SF’s Oscar wins are usually hard-earned, and smart money’s on Mad Max over The Martian.

    Besides, I feel like Mad Max deserves it more. Though ostensibly part of a franchise, it’s a completely unique take and story for that particular universe. The Martian is artfully done and had me on the edge of my seat wondering what would happen next, even though I’d read the book a few times before… but it was a book first. Adaptational qualities are important to consider, but I feel like comparing an adaptation against an original film (even if it’s part of a franchise) should probably weigh the original more favorably.

    That’s just me, though, and I know nothing of film criticism.

16. I’m hopeful for The Martian winning best adapted screenplay. To be fair, I haven’t seen the competition (I don’t see that many movies and those tend to be geekish in nature) – but most movies adapted from books I love require me to say “Movie different from book, accept the differences and enjoy it as its own work”. The Martian felt like the book (other than having Commander Lewis channel her inner Kirk at the end), really good job of bringing the book to life.

17. Do you mean that Stallone is a person of colour? Isn’t his family from Italy? I don’t really understand this part, perhaps because I’m not American.

18. Stallone is as much a person of color as I am, i.e., not really, no.

19. @AnnaH: Creed is notable as a film in which several actors of colour, in particular Michael B. Jordan, are generally considered to have turned in Oscar-worthy performances. The fact that Sly – worthy though he is – is the only person associated with the film to get a nod in a major category is this year’s most notable symptom of the Academy’s tendency to shit on non-white actors in general.

20. I can’t stand watching commercials, which makes the theatre-going experience pretty much unbearable. That and skyrocketing ticket prices. As such, I’m way behind in seeing nearly all of these movies.

    As a SF writer and lifelong fan, as well as a feminist, I suppose the checkboxes should point to my favoring Mad Max, but I have to say that movie left me flat, and I would rank it somewhere just above Thunderdome in that series. Great performances (and I’m a huge fan of , but a thin story with a lot of and then, and then, and then.

    Of the other Best Picture nominees, the only other I’ve seen is The Martian, which was enjoyable, if a bit by the numbers. Matt Damon carried that movie, but the supporting cast also brought a lot to the tale.

    My big disappointment is that Ex Machina wasn’t even nominated. That was a disturbing, thought provoking movie that challenged assumptions about intelligence, humanity, empathy, the male gaze, patriarchy, sexual obsession … and Alicia Vikander was simply sensational in it. (Is her performance in The Danish Girl that much better?)

    The absence of color and queerness, especially in the Best Picture noms, is disappointing, but I chalk that up as a reflection of the old white men who dominate the voting. Interesting how, for example, Carol gets Cate Blanchett and Rooney Mara noms, along with screenplay and art categories, but this “woman’s film” doesn’t rate for Best Picture or Best Director. (Also interesting that Mara, who plays the main character in the original book, gets relegated to supporting actress. I guess that’s a result of the balance of star power.)

    With two empty slots in potential Best Picture nods, I wonder what happened to lead to these omissions. I guess it’s an Old Man’s Awards.

21. If Fury Road doesn’t win for Best Production Design that’s god damn robbery.

22. Of all of the films in the categories under discussion, I have seen only two: Creed and The Martian. I think Damon was fine in The Martian, and I thoroughly enjoyed the movie, but there were one or two directorial, screenwriting, and/or acting choices that took it out of Best Picture or Best Actor territory for me.

    Of course, I generally have no interest in seeing the thing that eventually wins Best Picture … since 2001, of the winners I’ve only seen Chicago, Slumdog Millionaire, The Artist, and Argo.

    As to Mr. Stallone, I was genuinely impressed with the performance and would be very happy for him to win.

23. I completely agree that Sly should get the Oscar. He’s just fricken amazing! As for the whiteness of the Oscar noms this year, it’s a puzzle and should be interesting with Chris Rock hosting the awards. It’s sad though that we even notice color. I share MLK’s dream, “I have a dream that my four little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin but by the content of their character.” I hope in my lifetime I get to live in a colorblind world.

    Karen aka Kacy Jey Author of Jolene, You’re Not a Monster

24. Not much to argue with here, though I’m rooting for George Miller for Best Director; Fury Road is a pure blast of insanity.

25. How do you feel about the lack of diversity in these nominations and in the movies in general? It actually really bothers me and I feel like the offers are becoming very boring.

26. Having seen not a single one of these, I must ask WHERE IS STAR WARS?!??! Huh?!?! (I’m kidding, that seems to be a consistent all caps comment on every Oscar story so far, now that it has been done maybe no one else will feel the need to replicate it here)

27. Well, Scott is responsible for GI Jane, and I think it’s too early to forgive him. Also other terrible movies (Prometheus, ahem), and the Blade Runner Directors cut that is way inferior to the original. So no, I hope he gets nothing for a while longer.

28. Don’t feel bad about having trouble picking Best Supporting Actress, John. It’s a notoriously unpredictable category, rife with surprises.

29. I think The Revenant has all the momentum right now, so I’d say 10 of the 12 nominations it has will turn into wins.

30. How much of this do you think is because of the Academy, and how much do you think it’s Hollywood’s fault for not making more movies with non-white actors and actresses?

    A bit of both. Hollywood and theatre simply don’t consider actors of color for leading roles. Both NY and LA don’t cast actors of color unless the script specifically says they are. And when they do manage to get meaty roles, I have a feeling the powers that be underrate them. The noms for CREED and OUT OF COMPTON were for the most part for the white artists, even though these two pictures are in Oscar favored genres.

    (And for the record….I’m getting a little sick of people saying we shouldn’t notice color. Sorry, but if you don’t notice my friend’s black and I’m Asian, I gotta wonder about your observational skill…and if you don’t notice all of the baggage that color gives to people (like the additional fear black men get), then I don’t think you’re being helpful at all. And that’s something Martin Luther King Jr. (the real one, not the mythic one) would try to point out)

31. As someone who lived in Boston at the time Spotlight covers, I was blown away about how well they portrayed the city (and should get an award for not mangling accents!!!) My journalist friends say it’s also a very accurate portrayal of journalism.

    As to Room – it was a fantastic movie. I wish the actor who played the young boy had gotten a nod, because he did an amazing job. It felt like watching him live the events in real life – an exceptional even for someone much older than him.

32. I’m disappointed that Crimson Peak didn’t get any more in the technical categories. It was, by far, the most visually striking movie I saw last year.

33. Okay, autocorrect, how on earth did you get “more” from “nods”?

34. Yes, can we hear more love for Room? That was an amazingly powerful film.
    I agree, the kids performance was astonishing.

35. John – any thoughts on increasing the number of allowed nominees in the other major categories? Looking at Best Picture recently it’s apparent that there are often more than 5 worthy contenders and I wonder if that’s generally true for other categories too. At the least, it would reduce even further the wiggle room for excluding PoC nominees.

36. Only real thought I have is that Anomalisa might be a dark horse in Animation because of Charlie Kaufman, but in general the Academy treats that particular Oscar as the Pixar Award.

    I honestly think they should consider retiring that Oscar; it’s clear the Academy isn’t ever going to have the expertise to judge animation, so why pretend they do? No-one begrudges them for not having a Best Videogame award.

37. I think Miller should definitely take Best Director – Fury Road was one of the only movies where I’ve actually noticed and appreciated the quality of the *direction*, as opposed to the acting or special effects or music or whatever. It was really well paced.

    As for others, I don’t know enough to say.

38. @Merus It’s less that the academy favors PIxar and more that the award generally goes to whichever film grossed the most domestically. So, yeah. Inside Out has it in the bag.

    The nomination process for animated films is far more interesting than the actual win. They selected a good slate this year.

39. The Academy tends to snub films about black people that aren’t about racism or civil rights, which reveals a lot about how white people who think they’re progressive think about race in America, I guess. Straight Outta Compton and Creed both deserved some nominations for their directors and lead actors. Might not win, but a nod was deserved, even though they weren’t about magical blacks helping white people become better humans.

    Also, I think the Revenant is being really overhyped. It’s okay. It’s not one of the best movies produced this year.

40. I will be very disappointed (although not necessarily surprised) if ‘The Martian’ doesn’t take home Best Adapted Screenplay. As one of millions who loved the book I was thoroughly satisfied with the movie and considered it essentially a textbook for ‘how to adapt a book to the screen’. Although it does help I suppose that book was pretty much gift-wrapped for a screenwriter.

    Re ‘not seeing colour’ – MLK said he hoped people would not be *judged* by the colour of their skin, not that it would be ignored altogether. Race/ethnicity/cultural background is part of everyone’s identity, including myself as a whitey-mcwhite. To say that you want ignore a part of someone’s identity almost says that you consider it something dangerous or shameful.

    To me an ideal world is not one where we have to ignore our differences to perceive each other as human but one where we recognise and celebrate our differences as part of what *makes* us human. To see that someone is of different skin colour/gender identity/region/political stripe/musical taste to yourself and say “you are a human being and I respect you” is the ultimate triumph of rationalism and human ethics over tribalism and ego.

41. Re: Laura Lis Scott, I agree, Ex Machina is unjustly overlooked. It’s a great movie, evenly made. I wonder why it had such bad luck. I’m no insider of all things Oscar, so I am truly puzzled.

42. And we can add Morricone / The Hateful Eight as winner for Original Soundtrack

43. I’m curious which Pixar winners people thought were undeserved. It seems like their weaker movies don’t get nominated and while the studio dominates the category, it’s not a given that they will win.

44. I really enjoyed Man from UNCLE and personally think the soundtrack deserved an oscar nod. Costume design was quite nice, too…but Mad Max deserves that, regardless (and if they give it to yet another British period-piece…well…).

    I have no idea about Creed (since I haven’t seen it), but I wonder if the reason that “Straight Outta Compton” didn’t get nominated due to the concerns over its content…or rather how it glosses over elements of the past, like the accusations of misogyny and violence against women. I suspect many voters avoided nominating it for that very reason. Skipping Creed seems like a mistake, if Jordan’s performance was worthy.

    Obviously part of the problem is the diversity (or lack thereof) of the Academy voters. They need to address that as part of the issue if they wish the Oscars to remain relevant.

45. I’d looooove to see Mad Max sweep the board, but I have a sneaking suspicion it’ll lose best picture/director to something boring and more Oscar friendly (i.e. “Two and a half hours of Leo wading through rivers.” Ex Machina definitely should have been more widely recognized, especially in the acting categories, so hopefully it’ll take best screenplay as a consolation.

    Given that Max and The Martian got a decent amount of love, I can’t say that Star Wars got genre snubbed. It’s an awesome movie for sure, but the only (HUGE) thing it really excelled at was being a great Star Wars movie. I’m sure Disney will be happy to settle for its truck-loads of cash.

    And oscarsowhite two years running is a damn embarrassment.

46. You know what, I just realized that we *did* see “Ex Machina.” I’m sorry, I kind of hated it (except that SPOILER ALERT she gets away in the end, which I did not expect) which is probably why I did a brain-wipe right after. The rest of it was (IMO) both predictable and a really repugnant treatment of the captive-woman trope.

47. Is The Big Short a comedy? If so, it’s a drama-tragi-comedy. Like, the kind of comedy where you feel so depressed and rage-filled that all you can do is laugh. It’s a comedy in about the same way that The Wolf of Wall Street is a comedy, except that it features protagonists who are marginally less monstrous than Leo’s character in TWoWS. It won’t win the Oscar because it hasn’t had much exposure and because it’s necessarily didactic given the subject matter and because it’s filmed idiosyncratically. Not because it’s a comedy.

48. Ok, so whats the deal with the bleach white oscars? Is everyone who votes white? I dont even know how one gets picked to vote. Is it just institutional lag?

    I dont go to many movies, so I dont even know what the people had to choose from for movies. Do they usually pick from like the top 10 money makers for the year? If so, was the top ten money maker movies all white last year? I just dont even.

49. I nearly walked out of The Revenant. Gritty realism, combined with a character who could be in a marvel comic. The “Unbelievable Survival Man”. Couldn’t suspend my disbelief. They also could have cut about 20 minutes of stunning, but redundant landscape footage. Great start, great finish, the middle was a mess. Leo was great.