103 Comments on “My Electoral Prediction, 2016”

1. Just a note to remind people that if you make your own electoral map and try to post it here, your comment will likely go into moderation automatically, as do most posts with picture files in them. Don’t panic, I’ll likely let them out eventually.

   Otherwise: Political post, behave yourselves, mallet is out, etc.

2. Thanks, John.

   My current thought is that we’ll get the pessimistic Clinton victory map in the end, which means a lot of chocolate and antacids Tuesday night as the results come in.

3. I think some low level panic in the pro-Clinton and anti-trump-but-want-to-effectively-oppose-him camp is good. It will keep their turnout from sucking too bad.

4. John: “If the vote is close, you best believe Trump, his people and the GOP are going to work the refs.”

   To be clear, if Trump does somehow pull out an apparent 11/8 EV win, we can be quite sure that Clinton, her people, and the Democrats are also going to work the refs.

   Pretty much no matter how Tuesday goes (short of a blowout), it’s practically guaranteed *some* states will be close. If those state(s) have lots of EVs, there will be lawyer-equipped hollering.

5. The only difference I have in my personal prediction is ME-2 going to Trump for a total of 322 Clinton EV. Tuesday night is going to end early, I hope, once NH, NC, PA, VA, and FL come in for Clinton, effectively shutting off any path for a Trump victory.

6. Current polling here in Maine for the CD 2 outcome has Clinton up by four points. There’s a lot of Catholics and mainstream Protestants in that district along with a growing number of LDSers. Not a favorable mix for Trump.

7. Voted two weeks ago, trying to turn AZ blue. I’m more worried about the tight Senate races than I am with the Presidential one. The Democrats need to have a majority in the Senate to get the Supreme Court to full strength, and keep the filibuster from being used as it has been these many dysfunctional years. They may gain a few seats in the House, but that is it – I have no delusion that they can take the House until the census happens and the gerrymandering of many states is fixed. Fingers crossed for a good night with all the record early voting Florida and elsewhere.

8. Given that there’s that guy in Washington state saying that he would not, could not cast his Electoral College vote for either Clinton or Trump no matter what the vote in the state is, does that make the winning line actually 271 for Clinton? (And theoretically Trump, but if he wins Washington it won’t be close.)

9. I think the media needs to close the Trump spiggot after he loses. Providing him a public platform for promoting his lies, inuendo, and conspiracy theories is the last thing we need as we enter what will undoubtedly be a contentious Clinton presidency (already there are calls for her impeachment on inauguration day). America needs to heal after this divisive election and we don’t need Trump tearing out the stitches every day on national TV. Confine his lowbrow antics to his 70s VHS porn looking Trump TV and spare the rest of us.

10. John, I’m a wreck. Not sleeping. Upset stomach. Freaking heart palpitations. I’m going to hold on to your optimistic map like it’s my favorite blankie. Peace.

11. I think you underestimate the chances of Arizona flipping from red to blue:

    On our ballot this year:
    * 2 propositions, both of which should each increase progressive turnout
    * A real chance to defeat MCSO Sheriff Joe Arpaio

    Then Add:
    * The AZ Republic endorsing Clinton
    * Most of AZ’s top leadership (Senators Flake and McCain, Gov Ducey) not being particularly receptive to Trump
    * The LDS population in the state not being particularly receptive to Trump
    * All of Trump’s actions offending major groups of voters.
    * AZ tends to be more “independent-conservative” than “deep-red conservative”

    Living here, just talking to neighbors, driving around, and looking at yard signs, bumper stickers, etc – I don’t see a Trump win here this year.

12. Your first map seems to pretty much match that over at fivethrityeight.com with the exception of Nevada and Florida, Nevada’s been bopping back and forth for weeks so that one could swing back in the next couple of days. Florida though, I think is a lost cause. There, it looks like Johnson’s supporters are rats leaving a sinking ship and the majority are falling to Trump.

    In Utah, it’d be kinda cool to see McMullen take the state (he’s much closer to what a Republican should be – mostly concerned with spending and letting the socal stuff sort itself out in society), but he seems to be topping out at around 28% vs. Trumps 38% so I think that’s a done deal too.

    Again, looking at fivethrityeight, it appears that Clinton is bottoming out with about 291-ish and Tump is now topping out at about 245-ish. Not the landslide it looked like before the FBI decided to play politics, but still a win is a win.

    The really interesting thing at this point, I think, is the senate – it’s virtually a dead heat on who ends up with control there. If the Democrats control the senate and win the white house, it’s possible (though very difficult) that things may get done – at least SCOTUS will probably go back to 9 in that instance. If, however, they can’t take it, we’ll end up in the same place we are now with gridlock as the Republicans do what Republicans seem to do now and the Democrats flail around uselessly. Which would be a shame – I’d like to see a government that, well, governs again.

13. Living next to NH (and having family there, and getting inundated with TV ads aimed at NH) I think it’s quite possible it will go for Trump. The number of announced visits over the next 36 hours or so from Trump, Clinton, and their surrogates is surprisingly large. And I think the Ayotte/Hassan race (Senate) will influence the presidential race more than the other way around, a bit unusual.

    That said, I hope Clinton fights for every single possible electoral vote, because she’s going to need the cushion against faithless electors — one, at least, has already announced that he will not vote for Clinton and will just pay the fine instead.

    I do wonder if this election will give more impetus towards getting rid of the electoral college and going to direct poplular vote for president. That would be interesting.

14. This has been an incredibly strange election. Some of the folks I know who are voting Trump know he is a habitual liar and that he in no way intends to follow through with what he says. They don’t expect him to bring down their taxes, fix the economy or build a wall. They know all of that is lies. Some hate how he treats women. But they still are voting for him.
    They are voting for him because:
    1. “He will destabilize Washington”. They somehow believe that by voting him in he will somehow fix everything wrong with Washington because he is an outsider and willing to break rules. I think that is incredibly naive and does not match reality in any way. They know he is lying about the wall, taxes, healthcare, etc. But the one thing he is telling the truth on is changing the system? Also changing it to what? They believe somehow he will be entirely selfless and make it a system more for the people and less beholden to people like Trump. I don’t think they have been paying attention to Trump if the think that.
    2. “He is not Clinton”. Fine. I’m voting for her because she is not Trump. So fair.

15. @RJ
    They won’t ignore him. He brings them too many eyeballs. They will definitely bring him on for at least a year to comment on every single Clinton decision and event surrounding her presidency*. They will continually come to him because they know his comments give them ratings.

    *BTW – Still betting that within the first 100 days someone on the GOP side will try to impeach her.

16. For John Scalzi to be posting on a Sunday and before noon means he either witnessed heaven or hell. I have to pick hell on this one. Our saving grace might end up being a very strong Hispanic vote.

    Here in Florida the traditionally GOP Cuban vote has splintered. Many of them have switched sides though are still voting Rubio.

    So if you have already voted go out and ask if you could help someone else get to the polls. Every vote counts this year because the Dems and Hillary need a landslide in the electoral college.

17. I wish I was capable of believing Trump will lose but my faith in humanity is so low I can’t imagine a world where a racist, sexist, anti-intellectual demagogue doesn’t win. Either way I need to find a way to avoid Thanksgiving.

18. I’m leaning more towards the pessimistic side, and hoping we don’t end up with a situation like 2000. (That is the state that would push either candidate over the top is so close that a recount is needed. Even if Clinton wins after that, I just don’t think I can take the stress.)

    I kind of wish I was back in California, so I’d be running on Pacific time. Then again, my job right now is a bit more flexible about when I show up in the morning*.

    * And the parking situation means that I can show up later than 8 AM and still get a space within a few blocks of my office.

19. I saw something suggesting that early voting results were making it look like, if there’s a systematic bias in polls, it’s making things look worse for Clinton than they actually are. Specifically, many “unlikely voters” were voting for her, because usually they aren’t motivated because whatever, one Washington insider is much like another.

20. Trump has one (and only one) impediment to becoming President, which is if enough voters and states elect Clinton as President.

    So if you’re considering voting for a third party, realize this: Minorities- LGBTQ people, Latinos, black people, Muslims, etc., are personally endangered by a Trump Presidency. A woman’s right to chose is endangered by a Trump Presidency. Hell, a woman not being objectified as a set of genitals you can grab them by if you’re rich and powerful is endangered by a Trump presidency.

    I worked with people who voted Romney and Bush. I also worked with the above minorities. If I work with someone who voted Trump, or third party, I’m going to assume that a Trump victory was either something they wanted, or something they thought was OK, so long as they had a protest vote.

    Those will be people myself, and Latinos, black people, Muslims, etc. assume don’t care about them enough to do so much as sacrifice a protest vote for. Or who would prefer that they be dealt with the way Trump and Pence want to deal with them. Functionally, it’s the same thing.

    If you’re a straight white cis male, you have the privilege of being able to hoist a beer with Trump voters or third party voters. Their candidate, or their lack of caring if Trump was elected, has no effect on you at all. You won’t get deported, abused, shunted to reparative therapy as kids, or treated like de-facto terrorists. That’s something that happens to other people, so it’s OK to make nice with people who either tried to make that happen, or didn’t care if it did happen.

    It’s not like that for me. It’s not like that for black people, it’s not like that for Muslims. Those people will either know a Trump voter as someone who was profoundly toxic, or a third party voter as someone who would stand by and watch a toxic candidate take power to get a point across.

    You need to think about how you’ll look anyone other than straight cis white people in the eye and discuss who you voted for. Got any Muslim friends? They *might* understand. Latino friends? Possibly they’ll shrug at it. LGBTQ friends? If they’re white, they’re more likely to not care. But I doubt it. I certainly won’t be able to understand. This isn’t a threat, it’s a consequence.

21. Your 323 map for Hillary is the same one I think will happen election night. Thank you in great part to a huge turnout of the Latino vote. They’re not all rapists and murderers– they are voters and they are going to have the last laugh 😂 🍾😘 God bless everyone of them!

22. CS Clark: There are now two Washington state electors saying they’ll withhold their vote from Clinton, making her need 272 to win outright.
    https://twitter.com/tribelaw/status/795243929532858372

23. Keep talking, John. You’re helping me breathe again. :)

    I never thought an actual vote victory for Trump was likely. It continues to be election day shenanigans that have been my concern. Voter suppression by legislation, polling site intimidation by `observers,’ outright malfeasance by electoral officials.. nothing is sacred anymore. To some winning is all that matters, like it’s a football game.

    But assuming after the dust settles Mrs. Clinton is voted in, it’s clear there is still a lot of work to do in this country. This election has certainly shown the depth of the divide between people, and the magnitude of the desperation of our more needy citizens.

    We’ll all take a much-needed breath of air after this, but then back to work. I hope you continue to use this forum to remind people they shouldn’t start ignoring politics again for the next four years!

24. Thanks, John. I didn’t think I could stress out more about this election, but every time I see the polls tilting in Trump’s direction I realize that yeah, I can. I don’t even look at FiveThirtyEight anymore, because I’m afraid to. I hope you’re right, even if we end up with your pessimistic forecast. Tuesday can’t be over fast enough for me.

25. I made a prediction on July 23. Recent polling makes it look likely. (I hope I’m wrong.) https://twitter.com/jstanley0/status/756924991963213825

26. I have no reason to believe that I’m smarter than the 538 Montecarlo analysis. Their 65% for Hilary number is probably a fair assessment of the uncertainty. Both campaigns should be on edge.

    If Trump wins, it won’t mean that 538 was wrong, it could just be how this particular cookie crumbles. To be wrong, we’d have to see the votes in the states turn out vastly different than the Montecarlo inputs.

27. I’m wondering just how much of a tantrum Trump will throw if/when he loses, and what this will incite some of his followers to do. Will there be idjits with guns showing up at courthouses / city halls / town squares / etc to try to “take back” the election?

28. At this point, I’m more concerned about the Senate. I’m hoping that a few of the Republican senators who have promised to reject any Clinton nominees for the Supreme Court will lose their jobs. If the Democrats regain the Senate, one of their highest priorities ought to be to get rid of the whole judicial nominee backlog, since the Republicans have been stalling on Obama’s nominees at all levels of the federal judiciary for at least two years.

29. I wish I were religious roght now, because to say ‘I hope you are right’ ain’t covering the dread.
    As others have noted, winning the Senate is crucial. If Clinton can’t govern I can’t see her (or another Democrat) winning in 2020.

30. John said: “Can Trump win? If you take my ‘pessimistic’ map [275-263] and give him Colorado or Wisconsin, then he can win outright.”

    Randomness. Thy name is Michigan? http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/304557-dems-getting-nervous-over-michigan

31. Whatever happens I hope Obama care gets fixed . I work and go to school full time ( no student loans !) . Since I’m an adult student (32)I didn’t have any affordable options for healthcare for along time. When Obama care came along I was super excited since my plan was $10 month ( yeah $10, super cheap ), but next year the most affordable plan I’m offered is $130 a month. So I have an over 1000% percent increase in my premium. I’m just wondering why did this thing cost us billions if it was eventually going to cost the same as healthcare offered through other means .

32. NH, NC, PA, VA, and FL -John D.

    Fortunately those states are an hour ahead of the rest of the country and if they all go for Hillary the night will be short.

    Etang, that’s about a third of what I pay before deductibles and with a company who self insures it’s employees through BC/BS of MA. You’re getting a good deal if the benefits are comparable, even still if they’re higher for you.

    Yes the system does need to go to single payer. This mixed system is only a start. Every social program had lengthy periods of growing pains, some have them still, but people who benefit from their existence would cut off their right arm before giving them up.

    No doubt parents with children 26 and under, people with pre-existing conditions and those whose premiums are heavily subsidized feel the same about the ACA.

    Please give it time.

33. The McMullin candidacy proves one thing: this insane two-year-long primary period is completely unnecessary and should be as much a casualty of this election as Trump’s ego. Pulling a couple of names out of two hats would get better results.

    And Democrats had better start thinking seriously about who runs in 2020 when Hillary steps down after one term. I have no problem with Kaine, and I actually wouldn’t be all that surprised if McMullin ran as the real Republican as well.

    One good thing about this election: the Religious Right is on life-support. We won’t be hearing as much about the god-bothering born-agains in future elections, and it’s way past time for that development.

34. I’m not going to make an electoral prediction, but I think you are all underestimating the impact of the mountain of corruption and cronyism surrounding the Clintons.

    And it’s not just the FBI, Wikileaks, Anon and the Veritas Project revealing all of the dirty business. The NYPD is actually behind some of the latest revelations.

    The best Scalzi post I’ve ever read was The University of Omelas one about Sandusky and Penn State. Some of the details coming out from the Podesta emails that I’ve actually seen, and reportedly the stuff from Weiner, that hasn’t been leaked yet, reveal an immense and horrifying ring of powerful people engaging in the same behavior.

    I guess I can almost understand some people who are entirely invested in liberal causes ignoring this, at least until they are indicted, but there are a ton of people out there who are a lot more scared of voting for someone who is involved with these sickos than they are of Donald Trump.

    There’s also the Obamacare premium hikes. Everyone knows now that we were all sold a bill of goods on that deal, and not a single Republican voted for it.

    So, anyway. I reckon we will soon find out.

35. The reason Washington State isn’t replacing those electors, I’d bet, is because they don’t yet know if they need to.

    The Electoral College votes in December. If Clinton wins, but it’s so close that those two electors’ votes are needed, the WA Dems will do something about it. If Clinton wins and it isn’t that close, no one will care.

    But I’m guessing they’ll amend things so that the electors are actually pledged to the victor, or the fine isn’t so wimpy, or some other remedy.

36. Billy Quiets:

    Ironic you should mention emails right around the same time as this came out:

    https://twitter.com/jasoninthehouse/status/795358997083586560

    As I’ve noted elsewhere, the problem really isn’t that the Clintons are corrupt, but that their opponents spend so much time making the argument that they are corrupt despite any evidence that the implication of corruption lingers on them.

    This news re: Clinton won’t do anything with polls — it’s too late for that — but I suspect it may still have an effect on turnout, and mostly to Clinton’s benefit.

37. Billy Quiets
    I took a swing through the WikiLeaks site, and couldn’t find anything in the Podesta emails that seemed relevant to your post, but my search skills are not the best. Do you have an actual date for the emails you’ve seen? It would make finding them easier.

    Thanks – Will

38. Nothing I could say would ever convince you that they are corrupt if the hundreds of millions they’ve taken from foreign countries and corporations doesn’t bother you at all.

    Comey’s brother works at the law firm that does the Clinton Foundations taxes. Director Comey himself earned $6 million from Lockheed Martin, a company that donates millions to her foundation and Lockheed Martin won 17 approvals for private contracts from the Hillary Clinton State Department.

    So, I know you don’t believe any of it, but a hell of a lot of other people do believe it, and Director Comey’s opinion on the matter are so wildly inconsistent that no one understands what the hell he’s doing.

39. How Donald Trump Hopes to win the election, curtesy Kent Hrbeck and Ron Gant.

    https://youtu.be/jtlojl9mlz4

40. Billy Quiets:
    Everything you’ve said is along the lines of ‘There’s all this smoke. There must be a fire.’ I’ve heard almost thirty years of people complaining of the smoke, and none of it has been shown to be due to a fire. At this point, Occam’s Razor says that the most likely explanation is a smoke machine, rather than a fire. Feel free to upbraid me for my naivety when there’s an actual indictment; until then you’re just blowing smoke around, IMHO.

41. Billy Quiets:

    You know, with regard to Clinton, I’m just gonna go ahead and hold out for actual indictments. Short of that, no, in point of fact, you’re not going to actually convince me. 30 years of the GOP calling “wolf” adds up.

    With that said, we’ve officially wandered afield, and further discussion of this will not get us closer to the actual topic, so let’s go ahead and table this discussion.

42. [Deleted for mindless yammering — JS]

43. [This bit snipped out because I already said to table that discussion — JS]

    From everything I’ve heard in the last week from Florida, North Carolina, and Nevada, I am cautiously optimistic, and John’s electoral map pretty much exactly mirrors my own. My wife is more hopeful of a late surge but is more worried about the Senate.

    Had the Republicans followed through on what they said after the 2012 election and moved on a sensible immigration bill rather than nominating the most xenophobic bigot around, this might have been a very different story.

44. I live in one of the few states that is characterized by all of the pollsters as absolutely guaranteed to go red. No matter how I vote. Chalk it up to blind ignorance, too much talk radio (one of the few kinds of radio you can get throughout most of the state other than the university NPR station), or the state’s reliance upon energy for jobs and government revenue, but that’s what’s gonna happen. So, I do not get a vote for POTUS. The only useful thing I can do with my vote (and it’s what I intend to do!) is to vote for a third party candidate — in this case, Johnson, because the Libertarians are the only third party that’s likely to make headway in our state one day. This will help to keep another party on the ballot. I strongly disagree with Johnson on several issues, but that doesn’t matter; the purpose of the vote won’t be to elect him but to keep his party in play. It can’t get on the ballot the next time if it doesn’t get a certain number of votes this time.

    Frankly, though, I have never been less happy with the choice of candidates. If Trump wins, Obamacare is toast… and my wife, who once had back surgery, will never be able to obtain health insurance again even though her condition was utterly, completely, and PERMANENTLY cured. If Clinton wins, the business I have built for 25 years is toast. 25 years ago, I started the world’s first wireless Internet service provider, or WISP, and thousands of people now depend on it for Internet connectivity. It’s a innovative, environmentally friendly, job-creating small business whose customers love it. But Clinton is uncomfortably close with Google (there are at least a dozen Googlers on her staff, and a company started by Google chairman Eric Schmidt is handling her online campaign efforts) and supports incredibly burdensome regulation of Internet providers — a burden that a small business cannot handle. (Not coincidentally, the regulations transfer money from ISPs to Google, while protecting Google’s monopolies.) I love what I do, but due to this corruption (which would continue from the Obama administration, where even the nomination of Merrick Garland for the Supreme Court was influenced by Google because he’d support the regulations when they are challenged in court) we’ll have to fold, merge, or sell.

    In short, even if I did not live in Wyoming, I would have a choice between a madman who would deprive my wife of health care (and perhaps do far worse things) and a corrupt, entrenched politician who would destroy a good chunk of my life’s work to please a monied corporate patron. I shouldn’t have to make such a choice. It is a broken system that leaves us with two such poor candidates — and it has been broken by the dominance of political parties, which were mentioned NOWHERE in the founding documents of our country. The parties are gangs which have infiltrated and overwhelmed the system, to the extent that our politicians not only must kowtow to them but must bribe other members of their party to gain influence. (Yes, that’s correct; you can’t chair an important committee in Congress, or be the ranking member of the minority, unless you divert enough of your own campaign funds to the party.) This is the root of the problems that I on a small scale and the country on a large scale face today.

45. Brett Glass,

    You never know what states are in play these days. I don’t think the pollsters really have a handle on it. Even Nate Silver miscalled Trump’s chances in the primary. (for months) And he recently said the Cubbies had less of a chance than Trump when they were down 3-1. How’d that work out?

    It’s a crazy election.

    Also, Trump has vowed to repeal and replace Obamacare. He’s said plenty of times that he would keep the parts that work, especially the preexisting condition coverage. So, hopefully, your wife would still be covered.

46. So everybody here has voted, no?
    Amazing to me that The FBI has just said, a la SNL, “Remember all that email stuff we were yammering about? Well, never mind. Those emails were almost all duplicates of stuff we’d already seen. Sorry if we disrupted the election in any way. Oops.”

47. “Repeal and replace” is the official Republican party line, intended to soothe those who benefit from Obamacare. In fact, given the chance, they would simply repeal. Trump reversed himself on mandatory coverage of pre-existing conditions just before the Republican convention.

    Myself, I favor single payer health care. This is not because I lean left (I don’t) but because of mankind’s collective experience: every civilized country has eventually come round to the conclusion that it is the best thing for everyone. And as a small businessman, I find it especially compelling. Your coverage shouldn’t depend upon where you work (or whether you’re employed — especially when layoffs may not be your fault, as in Wyoming’s coal industry), and large employers shouldn’t have an advantage when competing for employees because they can afford to offer better plans or subsidize coverage.

48. My gut says watch Pennsylvania. If PA goes blue, then HRC is likely the 45th POTUS. If PA goes red, it could be a long night.

49. John, I just read Comey’s latest letter to Congress. He only talked about the investigation into Hillary’s emails recovered from Weiner’s laptop. He said nothing about the ongoing FBI investigation into the Clinton Foundation.

    We only know about the Clinton Foundation investigation because (1) disgruntled senior FBI agents leaked word of its existence to the press and (2) pissed off DoJ officials counter-leaked, seeking to downplay the scope and importance of this investigation, thus confirming its very existence.

    Comey’s announcement of earlier today ensures that Narrative Focus will likely shift from the email investigation over to the Clinton Foundation investigation and its alleged parameters, thus dominating the short runup to Election Day. Trump’s lechery? Not so much.

    Pedro’s guess: Trump Hate and Clinton Hate will largely cancel each other out in the goad-to-vote category, leaving advantage to the side with superior logistics–aka GOTV capability.

    In recent presidential cycles, the Democratic GOTV effort has been the superior one, and if this pattern holds on Tuesday, Clinton should best Trump–assuming no major terrorist violence on U.S. soil and no kill-shot from Wikileaks.

    About tens days ago, Pedro would have found John’s super-optimistic EV scenario as an eminently likely outcome, but not today. This election campaign is like a wild animal, like a honey badger that does whatever the hell it wants, whenever it wants, to whomever its wants.

    But what the fuck does Pedro really know? He’s just trapped inside this Computer Simulation along with the rest of you . . .

50. @ Pedro
    I find people’s referring to themselves in the third person, as Donald sometimes does, sort of weird. As is furiously fanning smoke while shouting, “where’s there’s smoke, there’s fire!”.

51. I suspect that it will be far closer than most polls suggest. The amount of noise in the data makes any prediction tough (and I respect those who try.) All the polls, pre-Brexit had Remain winning. We now know that those were off by 5+ percentage points. Expect the same here regarding Trump-Clinton.

52. @MSB: “I find people’s referring to themselves in the third person, as Donald sometimes does, sort of weird”

    That’s because it is weird.

53. @Paul Duffau: “I suspect that it will be far closer than most polls suggest. The amount of noise in the data makes any prediction tough (and I respect those who try.) All the polls, pre-Brexit had Remain winning. We now know that those were off by 5+ percentage points. Expect the same here regarding Trump-Clinton.”

    If I understand your logic correctly, you are predicting a Trump win.

54. “All the polls, pre-Brexit had Remain winning.”

    for the last week or so before the referendum, the polls were either showing a tie, or Leave ahead.

55. Dear John and friends:

    I don’t know much about maps, statistics, and number-crunching, but I am LIVID over how the FBI inserted itself into this campaign in the final hours.

    So, Mr Comey—nothing new was found? How big of you.

    But answer this—how many “online cheaters” allow their spouses unlimited access to their computers and cellphones? I am supposed to believe Anthony Weiner allowed Huma Abbedin to routinely use HIS computer for her work activities? On a device he used to Skype “girlfriends” and send dirty pictures? Really??

    Cheaters usually take steps to keep spouses OFF their devices. Think about it.

    Huma said she didn’t know how the emails got on his computer. And it’s not like they were a low income couple, forced to share a computer. THERE WAS NO REASON FOR HUMA TO USE HIS COMPUTER. And EVERY REASON for him to keep her off it!!

    I believe Huma Abbedin. The NY field office of the FBI is filled with Right Wingnuts trying to prove “Clinton Cash” is true.

    The reason the FBI only “found” “copies” of emails, nothing new—is because the FBI ITSELF planted them on the computer.

    Who could say or prove otherwise? No one outside the FBI will have access to the computer in question.

    The FBI did it’s damage. Now it’s pulling out, before anyone questions this fiasco too closely.

    John, I apologize for going a bit off topic—though no one can say Comey and the FBI didn’t affect the map, possibly quite a bit. I hope we’ll see a post from you re: the FBI getting involved in the election, I’d be most curious to hear your take.

56. If the worst comes to pass and a craven hypocrite like Clinton wins the election, I hope the GOP retains control of Congress to keep her and her supporters from selling what’s left of the country to the highest bidder. To all of the Trump haters out there, don’t get to comfortable. Trump has tapped into a movement that is not going away any time soon.

57. Obviously Canadians have no dog in this hunt. They can afford to be amused, not strictly serious. While people overseas presumably all favour Clinton, you’d be surprised at how many Canadians I’ve met, rich as well as poor, who tell me they wish for Trump. But of course they know the U.S. well enough to know what his chances are.

58. The fine in Washington state for a faithless elector is $1000. Hardly enough to keep someone who is either committed or corrupt enough to refuse to vote for their state’s winner. Another reason to get rid of the electoral college or make it virtual. (I.e. No real person votes, they are only numbers.)

59. “Trump has tapped into a movement that is not going away any time soon.”

    I certainly agree with that–there’s certainly no sign that the racists and misogynists who support Trump are going away anytime in the near future. That was very clear from their attacks on Obama, let alone the multitude of lies now against Clinton.

    (And I say that as a Sanders supporter.)

60. It’s amazing how much it speeds up reading the thread if you just skip all the Billy Quiets posts. Helps the BP too. I recommend it.

    I’m really hoping for a Clinton blowout, because in that event Trump’s people will at least TRY to convince him that there’s no point in continuing to fight it. It will also make Trumpie terrorism less likely. I foresee violence if it’s close (because a lot of people are stupid enough to believe Trump’s “the election is rigged” lie) or if Trump wins (because his idiot supporters will believe the vote means that Muslims and Mexicans and blacks are fair game, much like what happened in the UK after the bigoted assholes who voted Brexit got their way).

    Really also hoping Trump goes to jail, which is where he belongs and has been where he has belonged for years.

    As for Trump not going away after the election: to make that happen, we need to get the TV people to realize that we don’t want to see his face or hear his voice anymore. Give them a week for election aftermath, but after November 15, change the channel whenever you see his face, and the station whenever you hear his voice. I propose the hashtag #NoTrumpChannel for this effort.

    Sean Crawford, everyone in the world has a lot to lose if this fucking loser becomes POTUS. This is a guy who doesn’t understand why nuclear weapons should not be used, or why nuclear proliferation is a bad thing. Canada has even more reason to be concerned; while the idea of a flood of refugees coming over the border is a joke, he will NOT make the US a good neighbor to Canada. I’ve heard the metaphor of sleeping next to an elephant from Canadians; Trump will not only make the elephant roll over, he’ll give it cocaine.

    To be more concrete, Canada and the US have lots of agreements; Trump believes that you don’t have to keep an agreement if you don’t want to. Think of all the waterway treaties and trade agreements (including NAFTA) that could be affected. Also, I’m sure that given the number of Canadians who’ve dissed him Trump will consider Canada an enemy.

61. My brother is hoping that the Republicans will keep control of Congress because then we’ll have two more years of do-nothing Congress, and then we’ll have an unusual off-cycle election year where the party without the presidency will gain seats instead of losing them. I think he’s wrong because if the Republican majority states won’t fire the Republican Congress for refusing to do their job this year, they’re still not going to do it two years hence.

    Xopher: I don’t this there’s anything that Trump has done within statute of limitations that could send him to jail. He doesn’t pay taxes legally, and the misuse of his foundation is only going to get him fined. It would be bad precedent for Clinton’s Justice department to go after him.

62. I think Comey’s last two weeks of mucking about cost the Dems a one in three chance at winning the house. He turned the Dem Senate from a sure thing into a toss up. Hillary probably wins either way (though a strong blowout is now off the table). If we have 8 (or 7 or 6) supreme court justices four years from now, thank your friendly neighborhood FBI director.

63. Over here on the other side of the pond, we’re hoping you don’t feel you have to steal our “Stupidest political decision of the 21st Century” title.

64. A dot of blue in otherwise-red Nebraska is not impossible — Nebraska splits up their electoral votes. It’s not likely, because after the Second Congressional District went for Obama in 2008 (and the Republican governor failed to force the district’s elector to vote McCain anyway) the legislature gerrymandered the district. However, they did so by adding areas with a lot of former-military voters, and Trump’s insults to the Khan family didn’t go over well with them. The Clinton camp seems to think that elector is a possible, we’ve seen a lot of campaigning in the area recently.

    (And for the record, yes I’ve voted. And for Clinton — I disagree with her on several things, but I don’t want to live under Trump’s version of “The Handmaid’s Tale”.)

65. I agree Trump is not going away. He is the representative of the cancer in people’s souls; something always present and something all people of good hearts and intentions must struggle against. But I have to say, labeling Clinton as a hypocrite, liar or other unfavorable label alongside the mountain of hypocrisy and lies that is Trump and his movement is hugely laughable and frankly, weak.

    He an inexperienced, narcissistic and self-serving man who in every one of his actions has shown he will take advantage of those around him; most often those who initially helped him. He will suck his supporters dry and not care. Nominating such a person is disrespectful of the Office of President, disrespectful of the founders wishes and disrespectful to us, your neighbors. Hillary has her problems but she is experienced in running our country. Seriously Republicans, nominate someone with skills and a path. Dems may not agree with the nominee but at least we can work with it.

    Or to put it simply, we live here too, dude, and you don’t get to crap on the bed sheets.

66. Early voting shows Latinos turning out in record numbers, which is very, VERY bad news for the Trumpanzees. The Orange One is going to lose BIGLY!

67. I live in Massachusetts and I’m taking Election Day off from work so I can go volunteer for GOTV in New Hampshire. Clinton’s lead there is probably safe, but the Senate race looks like a toss-up, and having Clinton as President without having at least the Senate—and therefore, without being able to fill judicial vacancies—is not a prospect that helps me sleep at night.

68. Sam Wang, 10/18: “It is totally over. If Trump wins more than 240 electoral votes, I will eat a bug.” But it also looks like an evenly-divided Senate, unless The Women Men Don’t See hand the Senate to the Democrats. And I wonder if we won’t also see an 11/9 problem: Trump suing to contest the results in every possible state where he can, or perhaps violence.

    Going to be a rough few years. But then, realignments usually are.

69. Bruce, The Trump University fraud is reasonably current. And he could be prosecuted for Theft of Services for some of the times he’s just refused to pay people who did work for him.

    I agree, however, that it’s unlikely. It’s just a wish. We don’t have justice in this country; we have a law system designed by, for, and about wealthy white males, and it’s extremely effective at protecting their interests at the expense of everyone else.

    Jonathan Laden, now there’s a guy who really could go to prison, for violating the Hatch Act.

    znepj, I hope so too. But there are enough Trump voters to populate a small country. Let’s move them to an island with the proper characteristics, call it Huy Brasil, and make Trump (a client-change denier) the king.

    bonaventuresandbox, and the relatively-pessimistic forecast of 538 doesn’t take the Latino Surge into account.

70. CLIMATE. Dammit. CLIMATE, not “client.” Sigh. Bedtime.

    I guess links don’t show up in the current version of Whatever. There’s a link to a video on the words ‘Huy Brasil’.

71. Xopher: The existing Trump University lawsuits are all civil suits, and I don’t expect any states or the Feds to file criminal charges against Trump. Even though there’s a history of Trump Org. shafting workers/businesses out of final payments, I doubt that any state attorney generals will go after him because it’s probably really tough to prove criminal intent vs. finding the word/product being “unsatisfactory”, especially if he claimed it when he refused to pay up.

    I accidentally wrote “party without the presidency” when I meant “party with the presidency” and “this” for “think”, too. Sometimes one’s mind just glosses over what one wrote and sees what was meant to be written.

72. Having already voted (as of Tuesday), I am awaiting developments.

    Xopher Halftongue: Yes. (That vid is hilariously Pythonesque.)

73. “Downballot vote.”

    You know, for a while the _literal_ meaning of that didn’t sink in for me. For some strange reason, until I actually voted, I was thinking there was some sort of separate vote for senate, etc. this month. Nope, I was thinking of the mid-terms: it’s all the same ballot this time through.

    Which makes it all the more amazing for me that people just don’t bother to finish filling in their ballot sheet. Dude or dudette, you’re _right there_: what’s so important that you can’t spend another ten minutes filling in the non-presidential bubbles? Must-see TV? It’s all recorded and replayable nowadays, one way or another: relax, and finish filling the damn thing out.

74. How a 12th Amendment ‘contingent election’ to pick the President from among Trump, Clinton, and (possibly) McMullin would turn out isn’t a foregone conclusion, partly because it would be the incoming House attempting to do that vote en-banc by state, starting on Jan. 6th, not the lame-duck House. But yes, very much probably a House Trump pick, if nobody clears 270 in the Electoral College.

    Currently, 11 states have single-party Republican delegations in the House, and 6 have single-party Democratic ones. Of the 33 with mixed delegations, 26 are majority Republican, 5 majority Democratic, and 2 are 1-to-1 ties (New Hampshire and Maine). Everything would basically hinge on (1) what states flip on Election Day and (2) what rules the House adopts if it has to do ‘contingent election’.

    If it adopts the same rules as in 1825 (the only time it’s done this before), then Maine and New Hampshire (if they retain their current balance after the election) would be unable to vote. Of the 48 remaining (again, assuming no change from the election), then you’d get 37 with Republican dominance, and 11 with Democratic dominance.

    In theory, the House could pick any of the top three Electoral College vote-getters, e.g., turn into #NeverTrumpers and pick McMullin. Boy howdy would that top off a crazy election.

75. Two things. Apparently Comey’s house, for sale in CT, has a Trump sign in front. No proof, one way or the other, that he put that sign there. But it is odd. (there are photographs) I’m a member of a secret group on FB, and I strongly suspect that a lot of red states are going purple, if not blue, tomorrow. There are several ‘invisible’ groups who are not voting for Trump. The day after the election is my birthday… so that will be interesting.

76. Please vote for Clinton. Take a look across the pond at the unfolding Constitutional crisis where our Prime Minister is trying to use the Royal Prerogative to bypass Parliament and remove whatever rights she happens to feel like, notwithstanding the fact that we fought for centuries to curtail the Royal Prerogative.

    This is not a good place to be, and you really wouldn’t enjoy it. Please vote for Clinton.

77. Probably the funniest statement here was Billy Q.’s that Trump “promised” to “repeal and replace” Obamacare, so what is everyone worried about? 70% of all his statements this campaign have been rated “Pants on Fire” lies. He was just trying (at that moment) to appease Priebus and Ryan and the rest of the “privatize Medicare” crowd. He didn’t mean it as a serious promise any more than any of the other nonsense he has spouted, unless you really believe a 37-foot high wall is going up on the Mexican border.

78. Ugh, Comey. I don’t know what legal/working-with-optics recourse is available re: that guy, but I hope a brown recluse bites him on the junk.

    Really, this whole thing has started to make me realize that Fox Mulder may have been an unrealistically credible and level-headed portrayal of an FBI agent.

79. Why take my word for it, Billy? There is an entire website devoted to Trump’s lies.

80. I know many folks who comment here aren’t religious Fine by me. But Im really scared and plan to spend part of my day on my knees praying for the country. Yes, I donated money too and I live in a state that surely will go to Trump, but I’m going to pray anyway that the rest of the country comes to its senses. I believe it helps.

81. As a Non-American who is kind of confused by all of this, but still has to share planet with the results: Thanks for making me feel better.

    To any Americans reading this:

    Vote, dammit!

    VoteVoteVoteVoteVoteVoteVote!

    Vooooooooooote!

    Please?

    At least don’t let any mess up be due to lacking voter participation.

    Sincerely worried and hoping that come Wednesday, we can draw a collective sight of relief and say “Don’t scare us like that again, America!”.

82. This isn’t a very happy map for Clinton supporters, since it will leave the Trump supporters howling and possibly riotous on Wednesday, but 270 is what you need, and this map gives it.

    Curiously, all of the riots in my lifetime have come from the left. So the odds of the right doing anything close to rioting seem pretty low to me. To the contrary, the potential for leftist inspired riots if Mrs. Clinton loses are pretty high. Particularly given the brownshirt tactics they have already deployed this year.

    The next question being how one defines “riot”. The right could peacefully protest the election and it would be called a “riot”, while the left torches cop cars and is described as peacefully demonstrating.

    In any case…Never Trump….Never Clinton.

    Regards,
    Dann

83. It’s also interesting to think beyond the president per se, since presidents are not kings and cannot rule by fiat (witness the fate of many Obama initiatives). Moving past the issue of the butt that sits on the iron throne, I’m wondering what your thoughts are about the Congress that we’ll see taking form over the next month. (John, that’s probably best handled in a different post; it’s obviously related to the presidency, but introduces a whole new set of complexities.)

84. @dann665
    Yah… I’ve seen KKK protests in college. I’ve seen Neo-Nazi docs on (what used to be called) the History Channel;. All groups have the potential to riot.

    Either way only one candidate has repeatedly and openly begged their voters to oppose the election if they lose.

85. I really hope Clinton wins by a few states. If you can change the turnout by flipping a single state or two Trump and the Republicans will scream voter fraud, tie this up in the courts and never give up. Not that I expect Trump to concede in any case.

86. After everything we know about Clinton, the Clinton Foundation, et al, and people are still going to vote for her, there is nothing left to say to these people. Like my Grandmother use to say
    `there ain’t no prayer for stupid `.

87. @dann56: “Curiously, all of the riots in my lifetime have come from the left. So the odds of the right doing anything close to rioting seem pretty low to me.”

    I’m not sure what you mean when you say that the only riots in your lifetime have ‘come from the left.’ I’d like to believe that isn’t code for ‘civil unrest caused by disenfranchised minorities’, but I’m not sure how to interpret it otherwise. In the last six years we’ve had a lot of riots after someone was killed by the police in multiple cities (Ferguson, Akron, Flatbush, Anahiem and more), which are certainly leftist. We’ve had the Occupy Movement, which in some places spiralled as different groups used it as a kick-off and certainly some leftists groups (including anarchist groups) did that. But then you’ve got incidents like Malheur and the Bundy Standoff, which were certainly rightest actions (and where someone died drawing on federal agents). The Punk Riots of 2006 were started by neo-nazis and skinheads…if they aren’t rightist, I don’t know who is. How to characterize something like the Toledo Riots, which were angry protesters reacting to marching neo-nazis taunting them behind police protection is an exercise for the reader.

    That’s not even consider those university riots about Joe Paterno, winning championships or blocking alcohol use/tailgating at games, which I don’t know would count either way unless you consider them leftist due to location alone.

88. O.W.M. 504: The problem is that what we really know about Clinton, Clinton Foundation, et. al., is that the Republican lie machine has been running full board since the early 90s, and just about all of it has been proven false, but that doesn’t stop it from getting repeated over and over by the clueless. Just because people repeat false stuff, doesn’t make it true. Furthermore, if you look at what comes out of Trump’s mouth, a lot of it is proveably false. Trump is a con man, he’ll tell you whatever fits his narrative. The debate is rigged, oh the moderator is a Democrat. (Nope, registered Republican for 20 years.) Abortions are happening up to the time of birth. (Nope, less than .1% of abortions happen in the late term, all because of severe damage to fetus or threat to the life of the woman.) The election is rigged. (Nope, Trump is just behind in the polls.) Early voting polling place is rigged because they were open late in NV. (Nope, by law they need to stay open for everyone who was there before closing time.) Insurance premiums are as high as mortgage or rent (Nope, according to BLS, it’s about 1/3). If you vote for Trump, you’re voting for stupid.

89. Agree with your map overall, John, but I’d give Utah’s 6 EC votes to McMullin. Morman resistance to Trump is very deep. Quiet, but deep.

90. Well said, Bruce.

91. Having always had an ocean between myself and the current scene of events, I’m obviously not up on the minutiae of applicable electoral and legal details, hence my having what is almost certainly a naive and ill-informed question.

    Exaggeration and misdirection is par for the course from all sides in almost any electoral contest, but I cannot recall in all my sixty years (OK, wasn’t paying much attention for the first ten) seeing so much outright and provable lying as has eminated from Trump and his campaign. Much of this has seemed to me to not only be falsity, but also slanderous or libellous according to circumstances.

    Is there some legal mechanism in the USA by which slanders and libels made during political campaigning are not subsequently actionable, or is it just that no-one wants to unleash that particular tiger? Or am I mistaken and has Trump (more cleverly that appears credible to me) never actually said anything legally actionable. I mean, I understand you have something called “freedom of speech”, but surely that does not leave one open to be falsely accused of multiple immoral and/or criminal acts without any legal redress?

92. Sean Crawford: Canadians don’t have a dog directly in this hunt, but apart from Mexico, we’re probably the country that would be most obviously affected by a Trump win, and not in a good way. As has been pointed out above, there are many, many treaties between our two countries, a goodly number of which Trump would probably like to tear up and redraw to benefit America more. NAFTA is the biggie, but here in British Columbia we’re anxiously eyeing the negotiations (or lack of same) around the softwood lumber agreement, which expired last October. And while Trump hasn’t (as far as I know) floated the idea of a wall across the Canada-U.S. border (good luck with the Great Lakes!), a win for him would probably cause a further tightening of border controls along the 49th parallel, which would be bad for business.

    I’ve read about Canadian supporters of Trump, but have only met one: a fellow who, after I wrote a wrote a tongue-in-cheek piece for our local paper (which I edit) comparing and contrasting Trump and Clinton – not to Trump’s advantage – told me he thought I was being too harsh on Trump and that a Clinton presidency would be much worse. I think it’s safe to say that the vast majority of Canadians are appalled by Trump, and very worried about what will happen here and everywhere else in the world should he be elected.

93. @Terry Hunt: The big problem with any kind of ‘truth in advertising’ laws with regards to political speech:

    * Libel laws in the US, with regard to public figures (which certainly covers politicians) operate under the “actual malice” standard: statements have be be made in the knowledge that they are false, or with ‘reckless disregard’ for whether they are true. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Actual_malice) The problem with applying them to Trump is that given the way he seems to make up his own version of reality as he goes, it would be very hard to prove that he either *knows* that his statements are false, or that he entertained any serious doubt about their credibility.

    * Making it a criminal offense is even worse, because of the overbearing question of conflict of interest. If lying in political speech is made a criminal matter, it becomes a prosecutable offense – and the people doing the prosecuting are often part of a partisan administration with their own potential axe to grind. (Even judges may not be immune from conflict of interest questions; many states make judges subject to retention elections, and thus may be the subject of political advertising campaigns in themselves. Witness Kansas, where there’s an active campaign to defeat four state Supreme Court justices in their retention elections.) The 2004 Swift Boat ads are often cited as an example of lying political ads; but any federal prosecution would have been done under the Bush Department of Justice under Antonio Gonzales. You see the problem there?

94. @wizardru

    “All” is probably an overstatement on my part. “Most” would be more accurate; not by a 51/49 split either. The difference is significant IMHO.

    A riot involves assault and/or vandalism and/or theft. Is ‘civil unrest caused by disenfranchised minorities’ code for assault and/or vandalism?

    I see a difference between legitimate protests (i.e. some of the activities following Ferguson as an example) and a riot (the other activities following Ferguson as an example).

    I’m not sure how I would classify the Occupy movement. They certainly vandalized a lot of public spaces. But the assaults and theft were primarily aimed at Occupy protesters by other Occupy protesters.

    I wouldn’t include the Punk Riots as it wasn’t really an organized/schedule protest. It was a fight that broke out at a concert that grew into something larger.

    The Toledo Riots probably count. Although there’s a bit of irony over one national socialist group rioting over the presence of another national socialist group.

    And then there were the brownshirts that brought soda bottle bombs (and other stuff) to throw at supporters leaving Trump political rallies. The vandalism of vehicles outside of other Trump events also fits in here. And then there is the firebombing of a GOP facility in NC recently. Perhaps these are not full blown riots, but they are oppressive operations nonetheless.

    University riots are generally oriented around the university and sports and as such are apolitical.

    Sure, any group can turn violent. IMHO the left has a larger problem with it than the right these days.

    Regards,
    Dann

95. Unfortunately at the moment it’s mostly the far right gun nuts threatening to take their guns and overthrow the government if Donald is not elected. Haven’t heard such things from the left – not to say that there may not be examples, just that it hasn’t had enough traction to spread very wide. I suspect that most of it is blowing smoke, and very few of them will actually make any effort to travel to Washington DC and even protest, much less bring guns into the mix.

    On the other hand, I’ve heard lots of stories – local as well as from state and national news – of folks with political signs from both signs having had signs stolen, vandalized, and even vehicles and houses vandalized due to the political signs. One reason I don’t put any political signs out on my yard.

96. Sigh. Both SIDES not both SIGNS. Not sure if that was auto carrot or fat fingers…

97. Sure, any group can turn violent. IMHO the left has a larger problem with it than the right these days.

    Snicker. Trump rallies.

    And as a non-profit professional (for nearly 30 years), I know the Clinton Foundation is about the middle of the road when it comes to other foundations, maybe slightly better.

98. @Nebuly: in a country where the likes of Stephen Harper can be elected PM, it isn’t a particular stretch to envision support for Trump.

99. @ Dann
    As you will have noted from media coverage, that the color of people committing assault and vandalism has something to do with subsequent labeling. When African Americans engage in these activities, it’s a riot; when white college boys demolish a town event, including setting cars on fire, it’s rough-housing or exuberance getting out of hand.
    And you did know, did you not, that, when the Republican office in NC was set on fire, the Democratic office in the same county was vandalized?
    The difficulty with your analysis is that it depends on YHO. Mine depends on MHO and things look very different to me. Pretty sure that “leftists”, for example, did’t torch that African American church a few days ago, or add the pro-Trump message in spray paint.

100. Let’s not wanderer off topic, please.

101. Both of these maps look pretty reasonable. I’m just hoping with everything I have that Clinton wins.

102. Wow. Trump’s numbers have plummeted in the past few days. 538 was giving HRC a 64% chance of winning to Delirium Tremens’ 36% on November 4 (just three days ago). As of the latest update before I wrote this, it’s 70% HRC vs. 30% DT. I wonder if that means the numbers will fluctuate wildly for the next 24 hours.

     I expect part of what’s driving the change is that the effect of the FBI’s transparent pro-Trump stunt is wearing off as more people hear that it was bullshit from the word go, and possibly felonious.

103. Alas, our country loses regardless of who wins. We get either:

     1. A pathological madman; or
     2. A candidate who is such a poor choice that she never would have won were she not running against said pathological madman.

     It’s not going to be good either way, folks.