Posted on August 26, 2020 Posted by John Scalzi 13 Comments
And it’s going to be very very bad when it hits. If you’re in its path and can get out, get out. If you can’t get out, be as safe as you can. Here’s all the latest, from NOAA.
— JS
Taunting the tauntable since 1998
John Scalzi, proprietor – JS
Athena Scalzi, editor – AMS
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If peak surge occurs at high tide, we’ll have what The Weather Channel is calling “unsurvivable” storm surge in Louisiana.
Because of the rivers, bayous, and wet nature of the coast there, the surge could reach 30-40 miles inland, pulling Lake Charles into the mix and lasting for several days and tide cycles.
Despite the sensational nature of the reporting on TWC, this hurricane may be one for the record books. We’re praying for the people and animals in it’s path.
PLEASE evacuate and take your pets with you!
It will be similar to Hurricane Rita. Although Rita was a stronger storm at its peak. Storm surge then was 18 feet in SW Louisiana. They know how to prepare.
Jerry Pournelle once gave an example of what he called evolution in action. People who decide to stay put in the center of the storm surge are prime examples of those who’ll be leaving the gene pool.
Seriously, I’m glad to be well away from places that flood. I grew up in hurricane country. If I were in the path of Laura I’d be loading my critters and the horses and heading inland to anywhere I could take them to be safe. I really feel for the animals who have no one to look out for them.
Laura hasn’t reached her peak yet, she may be a Cat 5, so yes it will be devastating.
Michael, who flattened Mexico Beach didn’t intensify as quickly as Laura has. Be very careful.
I accidentally clicked onto a Fox story on her. When I got to the comments I realized it was Fox. Those comments disgusted me. This country is broken and needs to be pointed towards healing. Save yourself so you can vote, please.
AI Mychalus:
You know, I wrote this piece around the time when Hurricane Katrina hit, and people were disparaging the people who decided to stay.
Leaving is not always a choice. And Jerry Pournelle, may he rest in peace, perhaps did not realize that.
John,
You’ve been poor, and have not forgotten that poverty means limited choices, sometimes even in the face of disaster. And you know that poverty is not a character flaw. It seems to me that Pournelle did not have that knowledge.
And you do your best to be a rational and caring person, so people actually have to act like asses to draw your ire.
Why, you are nearly as perfect as I….
Wishing safety and security to all in Laura’s path.
Please take care of yourselves.
John,
Lets cut to the chase about Pournelle. He wasn’t very friendly to the poor and had contempt for the uneducated whose life choices led them into it. If you don’t like him, I get it.
There indeed is a difference between choosing to stay in the face of a Cat 4 hurricane vs. being too poor and having a lack of access to emergency services to evacuate. In 2005 the New Orleans poor were left in a worst of all worlds situation by the admin of their city due to the gross incompetence and negligence of the city leaders. Thankfully fifteen years later the people in charge of public safety seem a bit more on top of getting the needy out.
In case you haven’t read it, there is an excellent kids novel about Katrina. Titled Ninth Ward by Jewell Parker Rhodes. It does more to put one in a position to by sympathetic to the plight of the poor than any social justice lecture, no matter how well intended.
It is larger and stronger than Rita was, a 150 MPH category 4 when it hit overnight. I was amazed how it blew up from “barely” a category 1 by 83% in 24 hours. As for the 150 people who chose to “ride it out” and then called 911 for help when it was too late, RIP.
AI Mychalus:
In fact I got along perfectly well with Dr. Pournelle. He was not a perfect man, although of course, neither am I.
And I certainly do hope the state (in this case meaning all levels of government) do a better job of looking after the least of its people than it did fifteen years ago.
Good news!
Every member of the White House agreed to work together then successfully schemed behind POTUS’s back to hide all the sharpies and there’s now a concerted effort to prevent our fearless orange leader from watching TWC…
better that he remain ignorant of this (temporary) disaster lest he muck up recovery efforts… but then again he is already an ninth level expert at ignorance…
What makes this so bitter a piece of prose, I am not trying for humor…
stay safe, America
for the uneducated whose life choices led them into it
Uh huh. *That’s* what happened to the poor.
My relatives in the area were able to evacuate. Lake Charles dodged a bullet with the storm surge and took one with the winds. My aunt’s house is currently missing about a third of it’s roof…