Posted on November 6, 2020
Posted by John Scalzi
It’s a good day.
I hope you’re right.
I’ve been telling my friends all week to hang in there!
I’m holding until they actually certify.
I hope you’re right too.
Best Friday in 4 years!
It’s going to be a long time before they officially certify the election and send the electors. Even then shenanigans are possible – there were seven so-called faithless electors in the last election.
Frankly, that’s low on the totem pole of my concerns. Right now, I suspect there’s some damage control negotiations kicking into high gear (potentially along the lines of “don’t break stuff on your way out and the federal government won’t divert your plane to an isolated airstrip and dump your body in the ocean“).
I will believe it on Jan 21.
Every right wing nut job, Fox News included, is doing their damndest to destroy democracy right now. Poll workers covered a window because they were handling personal information of voters and protesters would not stop taking pictures. But Fox News reported it as some nefarious cover up.
I’ve followed your blog a long while and usually agree with your political analysis. But, is there some outlet that has called the presidential election? I’m still pretty jittery about the whole thing, still. Enjoy your celebration, though. I’m hopeful that you’re right.
The chickens are counted, here’s hoping they all hatch.
Vox follows decision desk so this counts as one outlet rather than two.
Pennsylvania numbers have become pretty clear, by normal standards, but the networks seem to want to get past recount territory on this one.
Biden is making a speech (possibly to claim victory) tonight. Would it be too much if they played “We Are the Champions” in the background as they walk in?
Today is my birthday. I wonder what sort of birthday present it will be. It looks like Dems will win, but nothing is set yet.
It is so much a better day than Tuesday – so sure, take the moment of joy. But how much is that tempered, for you, by the malignancy that is McConnell likely retaining power? The fact that Susan Collins in particular is still there… wtf?
May I suggest https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xc7x9tLFexw
Richard Thompson’s lightly aliased discourse on a particular land developer and “complete wanker”
With the greatest respect, from outside your country.
While I understand the huge relief you must be feeling, please understand that since essentially half of your compatriots voted in favour of re-electing your gravely disappointing president, this might be a case where loud happy celebrations are inappropriate and quietly repeating things like “dodged that fucking bullet” and “hoo boy that was close” are possibly more fitting?
Thanks for the Boingo! That’s been in my head all day.
Yes, it is a good day, and we do need something to celebrate. I had completely forgotten the Motley Crue song. Thanks
One of your commenters the other day spoke of getting a bottle of (I can’t pronounce it) wine to celebrate the election being over. So I got some wine too.
I was hoping my WAG estimate of 40% chance of Trump sliming his way to another 4 years of destruction was less accurate than the paid forecasters’ 5-10% chance. Not clear of the woods yet, but better to be playing ‘Hey Johnny Cope’ than ‘Garryowen’.
Genuinely laughed out loud at this. Also great playlist.
I am finally relaxing. Or as much as I can when I still have to put up with two more months of the bull in the china shop.
**Oh, this just on the radio — Twitter has formally stated that as of noon EST on January 20, Trump’s account status goes to that of ordinary user. It gets no special considerations or treatment and will be expected to follow all the rules of Twitter or it will be suspended.
I’m expecting a betting pool on how long that takes. Check the Vegas oddsmakers.
Okay where was I? Relaxing. The current numbers and — more importantly —the now-predictable trends say that the AP map is spot-on and the races they still have labeled as undetermined are going to go precisely the way they are leaning. That will put Biden at 308 electoral votes (if I did the addition correctly — might be off by one).
Several states will have mandatory recounts, there’s at least one where the loser has the option of requesting a recount. Recounts almost never flip more than a few hundred votes, all the margins are in the thousands. (Before someone says, “Florida,” they had a uniquely screwed-up ballot. No reports of such a thing this time.) Trump would have to flip three states to come out ahead.
The petition to the US Supreme Court over Pennsylvania is going to go nowhere. They are asking for a remedy that is already in effect, in order to insure them against damage that hasn’t occurred yet. The Court is not going to find that anything like a compelling reason to get involved. (Oh yeah, and huge guffaw: they are attempting to cite Bush V Gore 2000 as precedent, which the court explicitly said was not. At least six of the nine judges on the court are on record as having strong respect for previous court decisions.)
Furthermore, the Secretary of State in Pennsylvania has said that the number of “late” ballots is several times smaller than Biden’s margin — it wouldn’t make any difference.
Faithless electors — yeah, possible, but not 38 of them! Also, the Supreme Court rulings this year cracked down on a lot of the opportunities for that to happen.
“Faceless legislatures” — yup, Hannity and Graham tried to incite the Pennsylvania legislature to seat a Republican electoral delegation if Biden “stole” the popular vote, they really did! The Pennsylvania legislature issued an official statement that they were not going to do this.
There are only five or six other states where this option could even come into play (Republican legislatures, Biden win). Trump would have to flip three of those. This seems beyond unlikely.
I will not put it past this lunatic to figure out a new way to jump the shark, but for the life of me I can’t see one.
(For the benefit of non-US readers who are concerned about “But what if Trump refuses to leave office?” Yeah, not a viable option. The US military takes an oath to the Constitution, not the president or the government, and they take that very seriously. They are also adamantly nonpolitical. The moment he is no longer Commander in Chief, he has no special privileges nor authority. The only way Trump manages to avoid leaving office is if he actually manages to foment a Civil War and I’m not talking about his small mob of fringy alt-right insurrectionists. There is stuff I lose sleep over, but this ain’t it.)
Oh, Happy Day!
– pax \ Ctein
[ Please excuse any word-salad. Dragon Dictate in training! ]
— Ctein’s Online Gallery. http://ctein.com
— Digital Restorations. http://photo-repair.com
I was thinking of “The Angels – Am I Ever Gonna See Your Face Again?” Only because in Australia there is a refrain that occurs after that question is asked in the song that is not published in the lyrics sheets. Its THAT refrain that I’m thinking of now!
To paraphrase Toby Ziegler, I am choosing not to tempt the wrath of the whatever from high atop the thing. I am waiting until the election is called. Possibly even until the inauguration is held.
And then I will play the everloving HELL out of that list.
@Rest of Us Respectfully, having not lived through our four-year national nightmare, buzz off. We’re owed this celebration!
ShadenFriday songlists rule. https://youtu.be/swqQklJz6Q4
I am not relaxing till [I can’t even type his name] is out of the White House. And maybe not even till he’s locked up for tax fraud?
Some people have been commenting that if he loses now, he might try to run again in 2024. I think so many things can change in four years that I’m not going to even speculate on how probable that’d be, but what about all the court cases heading his way once he’s out of office? I’d think it’d be hard to run a successful campaign from behind the bars. Or from a private island somewhere where he’s running from the law.
Run again in 2024? Well Biden will be 78 when he takes office, which, correct me if I’m wrong, is the oldest president, so I suppose it’s possible that Trump could run again for when he will be 78. But since he has such obvious symptoms of dementia, I don’t think he’ll be in any kind of shape by then. If he’s even still alive – he sure doesn’t look healthy. I was surprised that he survived COVID because he clearly has the metabolic disorder that makes it more deadly. But VASTLY relieved that he did, because I suspect Pence would have won, ugh.
@rochrist: Point made.
Not the point you intended, possibly, but you definitely made something clear. Best of luck in your future national development.
I took all the songs and put them into an Apple Music playlist, so that I could blast them from my speaker, and then I waited. And waited. And it is 8:41 Pacific Time Saturday morning and I can’t tell you how happy I am to be listening to your playlist — thank you for making it!
@Margaret: yeah, his health doesn’t look like it’s been improving during these years. And also, yeah, I remember feeling a bit of a relief when Election Day came and both the candidates were still alive. Weird times.
Also, now that all the networks seem to have called the election (even ABC News who seems to be the most careful about not calling any states before they’re 101% certain) I think I could also let out a bigger sigh of relief. Looking from the outside, yeah, but the role the US plays in the world is big enough that what happens there has repercussions all over the world.
All over the world
Life in the USA just hit the speorg note.
And thanks from this side of the pond; the government here is now bereft of the ‘beautiful‘ trade deal it was hoping to get from Trump and the Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, is deeply regretting his decision to introduce domestic legislation to break international law thus undermining the Good Friday Agreement in Ireland. I doubt that President Elect Joe Biden will get around to returning his call anytime soon…
I’m a huge fan of ‘This Video Is Not Available’; so glad it’s included in the playlist…
[Geo-blocking snark for those who don’t get the joke]
Here’s one more, the Oysterband’s video of “Early days of a better nation”: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bTAh7OPNC20
I do not speak for all folks on my side of the border, but my sentiments are pretty common here:
F’in’ great playlist.**
Best of luck with the treacherous chaos that appears likely to ensue due to the sore loser currently holding the office.
*A Léger survey at the start of the month indicated that only 14% of Canadians thought Trump was the better choice, so I think I’m on solid grounds in making that statement. But since a rather larger percentage of Canadians cannot vote in some other country’s democratic election, we had to hold our breath.
**Survey information pending.
Taunting the tauntable since 1998
John Scalzi, proprietor – JS
Athena Scalzi, editor – AMS
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