The Unrecalled Governor
Posted on September 15, 2021 Posted by John Scalzi 32 Comments
I woke this morning to the news that California governor Gavin Newsom has defeated the recall initiative against him, and apparently by a margin large enough that even committed conspiracists can’t make a claim that the vote was tainted with a straight face. Oh, some of them will, because they can’t not, but every time they do they weaken the argument for later by showing that there’s no election result they won’t claim “fraud” for, no matter the circumstances. So on second thought, go right ahead, conservatives, whine that this election was tainted.
Back in the real world, however, the result is not entirely surprising in a state where the Democrats have a 2-1 party registration advantage over the GOP, and where the conservative candidate’s pitch was that he planned to make California more like Florida, where the recent infectious peak of COVID (August 16) was almost four times higher than California, despite the latter state having far more people. “Make California More Infected” turns out not to be the winning slogan GOP folks seem to think it is.
That said, and like every other commentator out there, I would in fact warn people on reading too much into Newsom’s unrecalled status here, with regard to signs and portents about the nation at large. California really is sui generis when it comes to politics, and it’s not like Newsom is universally beloved. The vote to deny his recall had as much to do with Democratic (and Californian) annoyance at the GOP wasting everyone’s time (and Elder being a pro-COIVD dimwit with a shady history) than any referendum on Newsom himself. In my view as a former Californian who spends at least a little time keeping up with my former state’s politics, it was unlikely that Newsom would have been recalled in any circumstance, but if I were Newsom, I wouldn’t be smug about the result. He’s still got fences to mend, and not with the GOP.
The one thing I would take away from this result that I think does have national import is the idea the Democrats remain activated and hyper-aware of GOP electoral shenanigans. One of the reasons this recall was attempted at all was that GOP folks figured that the turnout in a recall election would be low, like any non-presidential year election, but even more so as there was nothing else on the ballot. Low turnout traditionally favors the GOP, because, among other things, the old white people who are the GOP base turn out for every election come hell or high water. But it looks like somewhere in the area of 13 million Californians turned out to vote in the recall, in a state with something like 22 million registered voters. That’s a very solid result for an off-off-year vote, and a reminder that Democrats aren’t taking their votes for granted these days. Hopefully this left-side ambition to vote at every possible opportunity continues through 2022 and beyond.
So, yes, congrats, to Newsom, who shouldn’t get cocky. Good riddance to Elder, although I suspect he’ll try again in an actual election year, which will be good for Newsom’s re-election chances. And as always, folks, remember to vote, each time, every time, no matter what.
— JS
Larry Elder is the best thing to happen to Newsom since hair gel.
Great post! And good reminder.
I really hope Seth Myers gets his brother to do a bit… the resemblance is uncanny.
Yet another failed coup attempt, in a state where the laws make it so that coup attempts are ridiculously easy.
As a teacher in California who has had to fight for every raise. Fight for every dollar that has ever rolled down hill into my classroom budget. The colossal waist of 276 million dollars fills me with rage.
When I lived in So Cal, it was pretty easy to sign up for permanent absentee voting (aka, vote by mail) and I would guess a lot of folks took advantage of that for the last big election, which must have helped as well.
We didn’t just have the option to do permanent absentee voting, as Marnie mentions–because we’re still operating under COVID protocols, all registered voters were mailed a ballot, whether they were permanent vote-by-mail or not. I suspect a lot of people who might have forgotten or not been able to get to the polls on a random Tuesday instead voted because they had a ballot they could drop in the mail postage free. Everyone could also take the ballot to a dropbox or a local polling place. I think that blunted a lot of the force of the “it’s an off year and only strong partisans will turn out” strategy.
Not only that, but Sacramento county, where I live, has gone 100% mail-in ballots permanently, which has already resulted in much higher voter turnouts than before it was done.
I have heard other counties are doing the same, but I’m not sure which.
The only reason this sh!t happened at all is because California has this moronic recall system, where it is (1) way too easy to get this on the ballot, and (2) where the way it is resolved is so patently unfair I can’t believe it hasn’t been overturned in court. You can get 49.99% and that’s it, you’re out, and some douche bag Trumpist sh!theel like Larry Elder could be Governor with under 10%. In what world does that make ANY sense?
Fortunately, the vote was a 64-36% embarrassment. There is a lesson here – running against Trump works.
When I was in high school many decades ago we read Animal Farm and 1984 which were presented as a warning, particularly against Communism. Now I’m living in what seems to be a very surreal time and watching the Republican party following the script laid out by George Orwell in those books.
It’s quite painful to be a Republican in these times and the only reason I remain is because it allows me a very small (probably insignificant) way to try to run against the tide of ignorance, emotional stupidity, callousness, and greed that now characterizes the party. My fear is that as the radical right (which ironically calls President Biden a radical leftist/socialist) sinks to new depths, more people with a conscience will leave which will give radicals even more sway in the party.
On the other hand, maybe people will have enough of where the Republican party is going that it will become repugnant enough to be rejected by America and implode. I don’t know, I’m not living in the country that is as dedicated to the ideals of the Constitution, Declaration of Independence, and the Pledge of Allegiance as I thought it was. Otherwise, President Biden would have won in a landslide and misfits like DiSantis, Abbot, Noem, Greene, Jordan, Hawley, and many more wouldn’t be around to help spread divisiveness and plague.
I profoundly hope you’re right, John, but I fear that the whole “fraud” schtick is more about creating a pretext for restrictive legislation than for persuading the public. Kayfabe, if you will.
I only wish there was a way to make the people who started this colossal waste of time foot the bill. There are so many many other, better, ways, for California to have spent that money. Schools, first of all. But it’s wildfire season, so there’s that. And homelessness. And COVID.
Newsom can be flat-footed, but he’s done more good than otherwise, and I’m glad this is over and done with.
Steve Bollenbaugh: A new poll shows 59% of Republicans think that a belief in Trump’s 2020 victory is a core tenet of being a Republican. I hope your optimism is justified, but I cannot share it.
Scalzi: the biggest danger to Democrats is they get nothing done, not even the compromise items they already worked out because of certain people. The progressive left and the party establishment worked out a relatively modest compromise agenda. A few dozen conservative democrats, who the media insist on calling “moderates,” are actively insisting on a “compromise” on top of the compromise. The next time the commentariat here moans about delusional leftists and why we cannot have nice thing, consider this moment. The left made all the damn compromises they possibly could to support a President they don’t particularly care for and it still was not enough for “moderates” and “sane” bipartisan establishment Democrats.
The current plan is probably still too weak to fix the country or save the Democratic Party in 2022/2024, but we cannot even have that bit of hope after all the work people put into pushing back Trump last year. Sojourner Truth’s mighty pen of Justice help us all in the coming year.
As Christopher and Madeleine pointed out above, it cost $276 million to put CA back where it was. Perhaps that was a subsidiary aim of the Republicans after all; further impoverish the State and paralyze its government for weeks and months while the process grinds on, to what was a probable defeat but maybe enough of a long shot they wanted to pull the lever.
It would be interesting for us if you were to write an article next year as you did last year for the presidential election. Are Californians better off than they were four years ago? Talking to many coworkers, family, and friends who live there, nearly all say they are worse off. Yet most voted no on the recall. As you said that’s because the alternative was a talk show host with no experience and no credible ideas. But I wonder how they’ll feel in a year. 2022 is shaping up to be one of those interesting election years similar to 2010 or 1994, that throws either grease or sand into the gears depending on how you see things.
I live in New York City and I have not missed a single election, primary or general, since I was 18, and I’m 60 now. I am old and white, but I vote for Democrats. Granted, I attempt to primary away the woke, so, for example, I made sure to vote for viable candidates against Maya Wiley in our recent mayoral primary. But not all of us old white folks are Republicans, and it’s probably the case that of those who are, many were that way when they were young.
The Oregon Republican Party (which is crazier than the California version) has been repeatedly trying to recall Kate Brown, our Governor (who is nowhere near as able as Newsom). They haven’t even been able to get enough signatures to put it on the ballot this last go-round.
But there’s a clear message here, which is organize, organize, organize. We need to follow the lead of Black political activists in the South and make sure voters are registered, get out the vote–and that means footwork, direct contacts, and active advocacy. That’s how we won in 2020, and how we will win again.
Furthermore, we need to be organizing at the local levels and working our way up to national levels. All these third party groups who want to reform things waste time and money at the national level. If they had put the efforts into local grassroots organizing forty years ago–like the evangelical Republicans did–things would look very different today.
(And yes, I know what I’m talking about. Not only was I a Democratic party organizer back in the ’80s and ’90s, but I do have a degree in Political Science–for what that’s worth–and have spent time in the trenches saying that exact same thing about the need to organize from the ground up. No one listened to me.)
Thank goodness. #Whine45 and his brown (shirts) nosers would be trying this everywhere possible. Another loss for #Loser45 and his kind.
We’ve “gone down the rabbit hole” and should climb out.
As dejected and butthurt death cultists, social Darwinists and anti-choice trolls make their way back into the sociopolitical wilderness where California voters have and continue to say they belong:
Even if California’s response of “Aw HELL! naw!” is met with angry white boy tantrums and cries of voter-fraud, we can, at least for now, celebrate the right’s “bad day.” :)
Pretty amazing, the 64-36% win for Newsome being framed as scary bad news for the Democratic Party.
I don’t know how you can do that and still call yourself an impartial reporter, like Kasie Hunt, who is pretty obviously a full-time shill for the BrownShirt Fascists!
I’m grateful that enough people had sense to figure out that with a Republican governor, we’d be Florida in two weeks. These days you can’t count on anyone having sense any more, so WHEW.
The Repukes were loudly predicting that this would be an easy win, surprise surprise! Then again they think they will easily win next year, they have a surprise coming!
As alluded to in my first comment, Larry Elder was Gavin’s best friend. I was on the fence. To me, a recall is to get rid of someone who is corrupt. Grey Davis was corrupt as fuck. Newsom? Not corrupt at all (well, if you take for granted the higher the office the more corrupt they are, within legal limits. And they all push those limits, did I mention Grey Davis?).
I voted by mail a month ago, before I’d even heard the name Larry Elder. I voted no simply because he’s just a lousy leader, but not corrupt (by current political standards).
This recall became a lousy leader vs a Trump supporter. I will take the lousy leader every time.
What I would like to see is a poll asking why people voted yea/nea on the recall, and how Elder fit into that. My guess is Gavin won because nobody wanted Larry to be the Gov.
Steve B: Don’t lose hope–I recently saw (from behind) an elderly gentleman in a restaurant wearing the usual red baseball cap and was ready to give him my best compassionate Buddhist stink eye, but when he turned I was heartened to read “Make Orwell Fiction Again” on it.
And note that this recall has now spawned a “meta-recall”–the beginning of a movement to get rid of California’s ridiculous “anyone can play” recall process. Let’s hope something comes of this (beyond the inevitable “I never meta-recall I didn’t like” bad Will Rogers pun. Sorry.)
Peter: Thank you for, “Make Orwell Fiction Again,”that made my day. I hope that more and more people become like the gentleman that you referred to.
I’m one of those old white guys who vigilantly vote in every election, but I’m a liberal.
My stepdad finally left the Rethugliecon party to go independent, and he voted no with the rest of us in the house. We don’t reward attempted power grabs, especially ones financed by us. Grr. Lying Larry is anti-ADA, so he’s ableist as hell. I did have fun ragging him on Twitter. Dad would have voted for the bear before Cox. Cox has lost twice to Gov. Newsom, but I don’t think he’ll get the hint. There’s open speculation as to whether the bear will eat Cox now.
Please, Democratic Party, hear this and make a HARD Left turn before 2022! Forget the Romney Republicans – if they ever really existed, they’re probably voting Libertarian or Reform by now.
Your opposition are all either fanatics who’ve insanely convinced themselves a Reality Show Clown is God’s Messenger on Earth…or idiots who think they can ride the crazytrain to get their own way….
Peter — you inspired me to find that hat for my father in law, a book nerd and liberal of the first order. Good stuff.
“The one thing I would take away from this result that I think does have national import is the idea the Democrats remain activated and hyper-aware of Grand Old Party electoral shenanigans. One of the reasons this recall was attempted at all was that Grand Old Party folks figured that the turnout in a recall election would be low, like any non-presidential year election, but even more so as there was nothing else on the ballot. Low turnout traditionally favors the Grand Old Party, because, among other things, the old white people who are the Grand Old Party base turn out for every election come hell or high water. …”
It is a small thing, but I think people who would not write “Grand Old Party” should also not writ “GOP.”
Or maybe Democrats should start using “Best Party Ever” so that writers and editors start to allow “BPE” as a synonym.
personally, I think GQP has a nice ring to it.
I always tell people “if you didn’t vote you can’t complain about the result”. I hope that voter engagement spreads east, and jumps the water.
As a Californian, I think your analysis is spot-on. One can only hope we’ll sustain voter momentum into 2022.